marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: Betting market update
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/08/betting-market-update.html
Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, August 15, 2015. Extracting the odds from bookmaker webpages is a dark art. The bookies make it hard to extract this data. For each bookie I need a bespoke web-scraper. While these only take a dozen lines of python code; each scraper is different. Furthermore, they are fragile and need to be reconfigured often as the bookmakers modify their web delivery strategies. Anyway, I have now written six little scrapers, which I run every morning. Coalition Win Probability (%).
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: June 2015
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_06_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, June 30, 2015. A few new polls to report:. Moved a percentage point in the Coalition's direction between 13 May and 25 June to be 48 to 52 in Labor's favour. Moved one and a half percentage points in the Coalition's direction in late June compared with early June, to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour. Which I don't feed into my aggregations) moved a percentage point in Labor's direction compared with the previous rolling weekly report to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour.
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: January 2015
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_01_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Friday, January 30, 2015. 5 February 2015 - added maxima, minima and endpoint statistics to the charts. Saturday, January 10, 2015. Leigh and Wolfers are not alone. Walsh, Dolfin and DiNardo wrote in 2009, "Our chief argument is that pre-election presidential polling is an activity more akin to forecasting next year's GDP or the winner of a sporting match than to scientific probability sampling" (p316). According to this theorem, the arithmetic means from a sufficiently large n...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: Morgan poll
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/08/morgan-poll.html
Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, August 11, 2015. I first saw it on twitter. The headline for the latest Morgan poll. Has Labor on 57 to the Coalition's 43 (a three point decline for the Coalition on the previous Mogan poll with preferences allocated based on how people said they would vote). A shocking result for the Coalition. A couple of points to note. First, the difference between preference distributions in this latest Morgan poll is the second highest since the last election. Has adjusted its o...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: December 2014
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2014_12_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, December 20, 2014. Aggregated Polls: the first 15 months of the Abbott Government. The Federal Election was held on 7 September 2013, and the Abbott Ministry was sworn in on 18 September 2013. As the Government's fortunes have ebbed and flowed over the 15 months since the change of government, I thought it time to reflect on those changes. The simplest way to aggregate these results is through a localised regression. We can compare the smoothed Bayes model (which adju...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: The slide continues ...
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-slide-continues.html
Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, August 1, 2015. The slide continues . The usual aggregation (the blue line in the above chart) follows. It has the Coalition on 47.3 to Labor's 52.7. The aggregation includes yesterday's ReactTEL. Poll (47-53 in Labor's favour; a one-point move to Labor over the previous poll). Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Politics and Polls #22 with Linda Greenhouse: How will a Trump Presidency affect the Supreme Court? Julian Zelizer and I talk it over with veteran Supre.
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: Essential
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/07/essential.html
Psephology by the numbers. Thursday, July 30, 2015. Following the 2013 election, polls from Essential jumped to the right politically (jumped upwards in the chart below). I wondered whether this was a correction for their position prior to the 2013 election. Most polling houses had over-estimated the Greens and under-estimated the Coalition in the Primaries. Anyway, the last six months has seen Essential move back in line with my TPP trend estimate. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Text, video and aud...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: March 2015
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_03_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, March 24, 2015. The polls are noisy and contradictory this fortnight. At 49-51 in Labor's favour, today's Newspoll. Is the best result for the Coalition since September 2014. It represents a four point move towards the Coalition over the previous fortnight. However, tempering the celebrations in the Coalition's ranks was yesterday's Morgan. Poll at 44-56 in Labor's favour. This was a 2.5 percentage point move towards Labor over the previous Morgan poll. Collectively, t...
marktheballot.blogspot.com
Mark the Ballot: April 2015
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html
Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, April 28, 2015. Steady as she goes. There is not much to report since the last fortnight. The Bayesian model has been a flat line now for eight weeks, deep in catastrophic loss territory for the Coalition. The LOESS model has come back into line with the Bayesian model. Sunday, April 12, 2015. Another set of noisy polls - moving in different directions - giving different messages on the state of the nation's voting intentions:. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). The Internet ...
randomactofblogness.blogspot.com
Random Act of Blogness: August 2010
http://randomactofblogness.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html
Random Act of Blogness. Monday, 30 August 2010. A diary about living with cancer: part 1 – Croakey. A diary about living with cancer: part 1 – Croakey. Posted by Andrew B. Saturday, 7 August 2010. Bob Culbertson - Home. Some very nice stick music. Bob Culbertson - Home. Posted by Andrew B. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). A diary about living with cancer: part 1 – Croakey. Bob Culbertson - Home. Follow me on Twitter. Time to move on. Andrew Catsaras: Independent analysis and observations of Australian politics.
