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The [95%] Confidence of Nate Silver | Behavioral Security
https://beechplane.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/the-95-confidence-of-nate-silver
The [95%] Confidence of Nate Silver. The [95%] Confidence of Nate Silver. November 7, 2012. The headlines have been buzzing with the triumph of statistics and math in this election. But before I jump into how well statistics served us, let’s do a little primer on the margin of error. Whenever we measure less than the whole population we’ll have some variability in the sample. Now we get to Nate Silver’s. So how’d he do? Pulling data from Nate’s blog. 160; If he had gotten 51 of 51 states correct, the fo...
Risk Analysis is a Voyage | Behavioral Security
https://beechplane.wordpress.com/2011/07/15/risk-analysis-is-a-voyage
Risk Analysis is a Voyage. Risk Analysis is a Voyage. July 15, 2011. From the Society of Information Risk Analysts. Mailing list, I was introduced to the. OWASP Risk Rating Methodology. 160; If you haven’t read about this methodology, I highly encourage that you do. There is a lot of material there to talk and think about. To be completely honest, my first reaction is what the fudge-cake is this crud? David Vose, Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. Can point out the flaws. The Simple Power of OpenPERT:...
Yay! We Have Value Now! | Behavioral Security
https://beechplane.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/yay-we-have-value
We Have Value Now! We Have Value Now! June 9, 2011. I haven’t written in a while, but I was moved to bang on the keyboard by a post over at Risky Biz. I don’t want to pick on the author, he’s expressing an opinion held by many security. People. What I do want to talk about is the thinking behind Why we secretly love LulzSec. 160; Because this type of thinking is, I have to say it: sophomoric. . Problem #3: This won’t change most people’s opinion of the role of corporate information security. ...160; A...
A Call to Arms: It is Time to Learn Like Experts | Behavioral Security
https://beechplane.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/a-call-to-arms-it-is-time-to-learn-like-experts
A Call to Arms: It is Time to Learn Like Experts. A Call to Arms: It is Time to Learn Like Experts. November 23, 2011. I had an article published in the November issue of the ISSA journal by the same name as this blog post. I’ve got permission to post it to a personal webpage, so it is now available here. The article begins with a quote:. When we take action on the basis of an [untested] belief, we destroy the chance to discover whether that belief is appropriate. Robin M. Hogarth. I can make a comparis...
Visualizing Probability: Roulette | Behavioral Security
https://beechplane.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/visualizing-probability-roulette
March 6, 2012. I wrote a post over on the Society of Information Risk Analysts blog. And I was having so much fun, I just had to continue. I focused this work on the American version of Roulette, which has 0 and 00 (European version only has 0 producing odds less in favor of the house). The American versions also have Five Numbers option to bet, which the European version doesn’t have. . According to this site. Enough talking, let’s get to the pictures. Betting on a single number. Betting on Six Numbers.
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exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: Risk Management: Out with the Old, In with the New!
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2013/08/risk-management-out-with-old-in-with-new.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Monday, August 26, 2013. Risk Management: Out with the Old, In with the New! In this post I'm going to attempt to explain why I think many existing methods of assessing and managing risk in information security (a.k.a. "the Old") are going the wrong direction and describe what I think is a better direction (a.k.a. "the New"). While the House of Cards metaphor is crude, it gets across the idea of interdependence. Here's my main message:.
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: SIRAcon presentation
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2014/10/siracon-presentation.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Thursday, October 9, 2014. I'm presenting at SIRAcon today: "How to aggregate ground-truth metrics and indicators into a performance index". It will be recorded and will be available to SIRA members on the SIRA web site. Here are the slides. Here is the blog post with background and tutorial. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). You can follow me on Twitter here. My Google Scholar profile. Follow this blog on Twitter. Search this blog, lin...
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: May 2014
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2014_05_01_archive.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Thursday, May 1, 2014. Splitting this blog and moving to Octopress. I've decided to split this blog to separate my academic posts from my industry posts. I'm going to be blogging more about my dissertation and related works in progress, and I suspect that most of my industry readers won't be interested and I don't want to dilute my posts on industry topics - information security, risk, performance metrics, etc. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom).
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: I'm leaving Facebook (Frog escapes slowly boiling pot)
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2013/09/im-leaving-facebook-frog-escapes-slowly.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Thursday, September 12, 2013. I'm leaving Facebook (Frog escapes slowly boiling pot). That's a frog on the handle. It was in the pot. But jumped out when things got too hot. I'm one frog that has noticed that the water in the Facebook pot is getting too hot. For comfort. I'm jumping out. The most recent privacy policy changes are the proximate cause (see this. The title of this post refers to the story of the Boiling Frog. Finally, I don'...
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: April 2014
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2014_04_01_archive.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Thursday, April 17, 2014. Creative Destruction": 500 word entry for Schneier's Movie Plot Contest. Since I won last year. I wasn't going to enter this year. But my imagination started turning and this came out. Hope you enjoy it. Bruce Schneier's 7th Annual Movie Plot Contest. Full description and all entries are here. June 2014 – March 2015: Stock market booms. June 2014: Snowden revelations trigger international political scandals.
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: B-Sides SF Talk
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2015/04/b-sides-sf-talk.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Sunday, April 19, 2015. Here is the demo spreadsheet I'll be using in today's B-Sides SF talk on the Thomas Scoring System (TSS):. InfoSec Maturity Assessment (TSS) V1.xlsx. Download the spreadsheet and open in Microsoft Excel 2008 or later. It uses conditional formatting and cell data validation, but no macros or other advanced features. The sheets are protected to avoid data entry errors, but there is no password. Risk Management: Out w...
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: April 2015
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Sunday, April 19, 2015. Here is the demo spreadsheet I'll be using in today's B-Sides SF talk on the Thomas Scoring System (TSS):. InfoSec Maturity Assessment (TSS) V1.xlsx. Download the spreadsheet and open in Microsoft Excel 2008 or later. It uses conditional formatting and cell data validation, but no macros or other advanced features. The sheets are protected to avoid data entry errors, but there is no password. Poor Software QA Is Ro...
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: My inputs to DHS on cyber economics & incentives
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2014/06/my-inputs-to-dhs-on-cyber-economics.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Wednesday, June 25, 2014. My inputs to DHS on cyber economics and incentives. I'm at the 3rd day of Workshop on Economics of Information Security. WEIS) at Penn State. The focus of this day is to provide input and ideas to the Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate in US Department of Homeland Security regarding R&D on cyber economics and incentives. Here are my slides. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). My Google Scholar profile.
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: Shocker!! I won Bruce Scheier's 6th "Movie-Plot Threat Contest"
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2013/07/shocker-i-won-bruce-scheiers-6th-movie.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Friday, July 5, 2013. I won Bruce Scheier's 6th "Movie-Plot Threat Contest". I think the stopwatch on 15 minutes of fame just started. From Bruce's blog. On May 15, I announced the five semi-finalists. Voting continued through the end of the month, and the winner is Russell Thomas, with this entry:. Asked the Dutch Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment in an unguarded moment. There was talk of canceling the rest of the confer...
exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com
Exploring Possibility Space: October 2014
http://exploringpossibilityspace.blogspot.com/2014_10_01_archive.html
Musings on risk, innovation, data science and my PhD dissertation. Friday, October 31, 2014. Presentation: Topological View on Radical Innovation. I'm presenting today at the 6th Annual Complexity in Business Conference. Sponsored by the University of Maryland Center for Complexity in Business. Here are my slides. FYI: no information security content here, unless you are interested in institutional innovation.). If you are really, really. Thursday, October 9, 2014. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Ten Dimensi...
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Behavioral Security | Jay Jacobs
The [95%] Confidence of Nate Silver. November 7, 2012. The headlines have been buzzing with the triumph of statistics and math in this election. But before I jump into how well statistics served us, let’s do a little primer on the margin of error. Whenever we measure less than the whole population we’ll have some variability in the sample. Now we get to Nate Silver’s. So how’d he do? Pulling data from Nate’s blog. Next we pull the actual results. I grabbed data from uselections.org. 160; If he had gott...
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