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Aleph Insights

Improving Analysis and Decision-Making. Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis.

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Improving Analysis and Decision-Making. Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis.

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wwwalephinsights com,in this post,with more information,probability itself,posted by,nick hare,no comments,email this,blogthis,share to twitter,share to facebook,share to pinterest,and its cost,is it coherent,is it decision relevant,summary,belief,or data

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Aleph Insights | blog.alephinsights.com Reviews

https://blog.alephinsights.com

Improving Analysis and Decision-Making. Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis.

INTERNAL PAGES

blog.alephinsights.com

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Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory

http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/07/confidence-and-probability-part-8-prior.html

Thursday, 16 July 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory. Measure the extent to which an assessment is based on 'background information' rather than case-specific data? This is a tempting idea. There seems to be a qualitative difference between the following assessments:. The probability of rain in Las Vegas tomorrow is 7%, because it rains on average there 25 days a year.". Of information, implying that in both cases above (where the probability is 7%), the information conten...

2

Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 5: The 'Uncertain Probability' Theory

http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/05/confidence-and-probability-part-5.html

Friday, 1 May 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 5: The 'Uncertain Probability' Theory. This is part 5 of a series of posts about probability and confidence that starts here. In the last post. As with all these theories, we'll apply three tests: internal coherence, alignment with usage, and decision relevance. Is the theory internally coherent? If the 'uncertain probability' theory is correct, probability is a kind of quantity about which it's meaningful to be uncertain. This has prima facie. Whether ...

3

Aleph Insights: July 2015

http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015_07_01_archive.html

Thursday, 16 July 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory. Measure the extent to which an assessment is based on 'background information' rather than case-specific data? This is a tempting idea. There seems to be a qualitative difference between the following assessments:. The probability of rain in Las Vegas tomorrow is 7%, because it rains on average there 25 days a year.". Of information, implying that in both cases above (where the probability is 7%), the information conten...

4

Aleph Insights: March 2015

http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015_03_01_archive.html

Wednesday, 25 March 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 3: Confidence Intervals. In the last post. We defined a 'confidence statement' as follows:. I have confidence C that hypothesis H has probability P.". In the context of our quest to find a meaningful interpretation for this kind of thing. People with some statistical training often begin instinctively to analogise to 'confidence intervals', and specifically about the 'probability' element. Is confidence related to a confidence interval around.

5

Aleph Insights: The Impact of Information on Probability

http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/08/the-impact-of-information-on-probability.html

Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis. Statements, and nine in ten are false.

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sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: Cheap, Re-usable Cell Phone Microscope? Yeah, It's A Thing...

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015/08/cheap-re-usable-cell-phone-microscope.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Friday, August 7, 2015. Cheap, Re-usable Cell Phone Microscope? Yeah, It's A Thing. For the last couple of years I have been exploring the idea of intelligence support to entrepreneurs. The cool thing about this is that I get exposed to lots of new ideas. The most recent - and one of the most interesting - products I have seen is the Button Microscope. You can get a little bit better feel for the power of the mi...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: Cool Chart, Cool Charting Program (VisibleCertainty.com)

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2009/05/cool-chart-cool-charting-program.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Wednesday, May 6, 2009. Cool Chart, Cool Charting Program (VisibleCertainty.com). Is a new-ish online tool for visualizing data. The chart below is an example of how their product works (while making a fairly thought provoking point at the same time). The chart is interactive - mouse over the points to see the data in detail. Posted by Kristan J. Wheaton. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). How To Make Decisions.

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: 2015-07-12

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015_07_12_archive.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Tuesday, July 14, 2015. How Did I Miss This? YouTube Now Has A 360 Degree Video(! You read that title right, sports fans! 360 degree videos. As in you can now decide where you want to look, left, right, up or down in a video. Take a look at this recent video shot by a couple of guys visiting North Kore. How does it work? The North Korean video was shot with an Etaniya. To make it easier. Links to this post.

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: The Best Job In Intelligence (That You’ve Probably Never Heard Of)

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-best-job-in-intelligence-that-youve.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Monday, April 28, 2014. The Best Job In Intelligence (That You’ve Probably Never Heard Of). 8220;Here’s the deal…”. 8220;I’m all ears.”. 8220;On any given day you are as likely to be working on a terrorism case as you are on a drug smuggling ring. Everything from chop shops in major cities to gangs that traffic prostitutes across the border are all going to come across your desk.”. 8220;What about the pay? Compl...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: 2nd Annual Report On Hiring Prospects For Entry-level Intel Analysts In Business Is Out!

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2013/05/2nd-annual-report-on-hiring-prospects.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Monday, May 13, 2013. 2nd Annual Report On Hiring Prospects For Entry-level Intel Analysts In Business Is Out! Http:/ www.iismu.org/white-papers. If our recent report on hiring prospects within the national security community. Was bleak to the point of depressing, our latest report, titled Entry-level Analyst Hiring Projections for Intelligence In Business. More than provides an antidote. It is not all peaches a...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: Intelligence And Cookies

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015/04/intelligence-and-cookies.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Wednesday, April 22, 2015. Note: This is entry number 2 in a three part series on some of the things I have learned about intelligence support to entrepreneurs from running a number of crowdfunding campaigns. For Part 1, click here. Who can resist a good cookie? Fresh out of the oven, homemade, imprinted with pictures of horses and bunnies and dinosaurs. Check out her project page (just click on the image above)...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: Intelligence And Vigilantes

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015/06/intelligence-and-vigilantes.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Wednesday, June 3, 2015. Note: This is the third and final entry in a three part series on some of the things I have learned about intelligence support to entrepreneurs from running a number of crowdfunding campaigns. For Part 1, click here. And for Part 2, click here. Is a comic book series by Josh Lucas. Loosely based on our hometown, Erie, PA, Moros. That we helped him run. The argument goes something like th...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: 2015-04-12

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015_04_12_archive.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Thursday, April 16, 2015. It has been said (at least by me) that coffee is to intel as air is to life. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration has reportedly recognized coffee, along with sugar and alcohol, as part of the three basic food groups of intelligence professionals everywhere (note I said "recognized" not "approved of".). A project that is not just about coffee but about the perfect. In fact, I would...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: 2015-05-31

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015_05_31_archive.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Wednesday, June 3, 2015. Note: This is the third and final entry in a three part series on some of the things I have learned about intelligence support to entrepreneurs from running a number of crowdfunding campaigns. For Part 1, click here. And for Part 2, click here. Is a comic book series by Josh Lucas. Loosely based on our hometown, Erie, PA, Moros. That we helped him run. The argument goes something like th...

sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com

Sources And Methods: 2015-08-02

http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2015_08_02_archive.html

Whatever happens to cross my desk or mind on teaching, intelligence or teaching intelligence. Friday, August 7, 2015. Cheap, Re-usable Cell Phone Microscope? Yeah, It's A Thing. For the last couple of years I have been exploring the idea of intelligence support to entrepreneurs. The cool thing about this is that I get exposed to lots of new ideas. The most recent - and one of the most interesting - products I have seen is the Button Microscope. You can get a little bit better feel for the power of the mi...

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Aleperno's Blog - Inside a young student's mind

Inside a young student's mind. Follow Me on Twitter. Elementary Os (Freya) First Insights. Monday July 6th, 2015. Last time I switched OS was back in ’13 when I installed Debian Wheezy on my Dell Ispiron 14R (you can read about it here. Back then I switched from Ubuntu (10.04 I think) to Debian 7. About a couple of days ago I bought a Samsung SSD, so I thought I might also test another Linux Distro. After talking to some friends I decided to give Elementary Os a try. Read more ». Saturday June 27th, 2015.

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aleph451 | Le lettere, i sensi, il fuoco, il nulla che avanza.

Le lettere, i sensi, il fuoco, il nulla che avanza. Vai al contenuto principale. Vai al contenuto secondario. Estate, una stagione nel mare del tempo. Continua a leggere →. Credere in un rinascimento dell’anima. Cosa potrebbe voler dire? La frase è apparsa dal nulla. Continua a leggere →. Tremori, avvisaglie, sincronismi inquietanti. Eppure c’è il sole, il cielo finalmente terso in questa giornata autunnale di primavera. Continua a leggere →. Un diario della sopravvivenza. Proudly powered by WordPress.

blog.alephbeta.org

AlephBeta Blog

Why I Love What I Do. December 29, 2015. Hi Folks, David Fohrman here. I wanted to send you a little drawing. I attached it to this letter. I received it one morning in my office in a handwritten envelope. It came from a nine-year old girl by the name of Faith, who has been watching Aleph Beta videos. I looked at it carefully and pulled out my copy of Genesis. Lo and behold, Faith was right. The structure was really there. What does it mean? 8212; or send a note. Find your way to join what we do. An Insi...

blog.alephgroupinc.com

Aleph Group Inc.

Thursday, August 13, 2015. EBOLA - THE ROAD TO ZERO. SINCE LAST FALL, NEW ebola cases across west africa. Since the Ebola epidemic began in West Africa, the U.S. Government has contributed some $1.4 billion in funding to stop the disease in its tracks. This decisive action led to the major international response we see today and helped lower the number of new Ebola cases. USAID Associate Administrator Mark Feierstein made an important announcement about the United State’s ongoing commitment to. Are integ...

blog.alephinsights.com

Aleph Insights

Improving Analysis and Decision-Making. Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis.

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ERomero's AlephUn

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aleprzygoda! – "An adventure is only an inconvenience rightly considered. An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered." – G.K. Chesterton

An adventure is only an inconvenience rightly considered. An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered. – G.K. Chesterton. Mimochodem – chwila światła między wschodem a zachodem…. Czy Wy też nie możecie się oprzeć spadającym kasztanom i zbieracie ile się da? My nie jesteśmy w stanie przejść obok kasztanów obojętnie i zawsze wracamy ze spacerów z pełnymi kieszeniami. Pierwszy test z TestMeToo – pieluszki Toujours! Przy śniadaniu. Ola: Mam brudne ręce! Po czym wróciła naprawić to niedociągnięci...

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The Aleratec Blog - Useful Information on Technology

Keeping up with the Chromebooks. June 27, 2016. No Comments ↓. Aleratec’s ChargeCabinet16 Chromebook Charging Cabinet keeps classroom laptops safely stored, charged and ready to deploy. Tagged with: chromebook deployment. Posted in Portable Device Management. Tablet and iPad Management. Tablets in the classroom. Aleratec’s Current Line of Computer Connected USB Duplicators are Mac Compatible. April 26, 2016. No Comments ↓. 1:10 USB 3.0 Copy Cruiser Mini Duplicator. March 29, 2016. No Comments ↓. When we ...

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South Florida Clothing Boutique - Womens, Teens & Girls

Helping Those in Need. Worn by the stars. 1560 S. Dixie Hwy, Ste 101. Coral Gables, FL 33146.

blog.alereon.com

Life Without Wires™ by Eric Broockman

4:26 pm - Thu 21 May 2015 CST. Life Without Wires™ by Eric Broockman. Presentation at IEEE 802.11 portends an inevitable future Wi-Fi that will utilize ultrawideband frequencies. With Windows Phone 8 and the Surface tablet, the Microsoft Giant Stirs from its Slumber. UWB – A 10 Year Anniversary on Valentine’s Day 2012. The Smartphone – on the verge of “Killing” the PC Laptop at CES January 2012. Steve Jobs’ Full Legacy Yet to be Written – What is Coming Next . . . The Boy Genius Report. 3ds max 2009 down...