calibratedprobabilityassessment.org

Calibrated Probability Assessment

Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are "well calibrated" meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability (say 60%) that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60% of events judged to have a 60% chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list:.

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Calibrated Probability Assessment | calibratedprobabilityassessment.org Reviews

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Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are well calibrated meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability (say 60%) that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60% of events judged to have a 60% chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list:.

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Calibrated Probability Assessment | calibratedprobabilityassessment.org Reviews

https://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org

Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are "well calibrated" meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability (say 60%) that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60% of events judged to have a 60% chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list:.

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calibratedprobabilityassessment.org

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About Us | Calibrated Probability Assessment

http://www.calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/about.php

This site is produced by John Salvatier. John Salvatier blogs about economics and other matters. Alex Loddengaard blogs about everything.

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Contribute to Calibrated Probability Assessment | Calibrated Probability Assessment

http://www.calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/contribute.php

Contribute to Calibrated Probability Assessment. To contribute a question or suggestion or if you would like to help out with Calibrated Probability Assessment, send a message to to John Salvatier at jsalvati-at-u-dot-washington-dot-edu.

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More Info | Calibrated Probability Assessment

http://www.calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/moreinfo.php

Further Information About Calibrated Probability Assessment. The major result of calibration studies is that people are almost always significantly overconfident (p.11 Wilson 1994). Correcting for one's own overconfidence is apparently difficult. Assessors who are given feedback about their calibration only show modest improvements. One one apparently effective way of improving your calibration is to explicitly stop and consider reasons why you might be wrong. It is possible to perform calibration tests ...

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An Educated Guess

http://sethrylan.org/bayesian

A tool for calibrated probability estimation. This application is built using Travis CI. Hosted on Google App Engine. And developed through GitHub. About calibrate. 160; think probabilistically. 160; . You are a terrible guesser. I'm also a terrible guesser. As are most people, with the exception of some well-trained meteorologists and professional gamblers. Guessing' here refers to a properly calibrated probability estimate. If you were to guess the gross domestic earnings of. The answer might be:.

simfishthoughts.wordpress.com

June | 2011 | Simfish/InquilineKea's Thoughts

https://simfishthoughts.wordpress.com/2011/06

Academic Quotes I’ve Collected. Common (and possibly untrue) assumptions. Feeling discouraged from doing anything math intensive? General thoughts on applying to places. How to Learn Efficiently. List of programs (and firefox add-ons). Mind-expanding things to try out. Other General Life Tips/Social Tips. What drives me to do the things i do? Anonymous on list of nifty computer tricks. On this is a sticky page. A on 13 November, 2010 14:34. Follow Blog via Email. Join 4 other followers. I seriously need ...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

Optimal currency areas are nonsense | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/optimal-currency-areas-are-nonsense

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Optimal currency areas are nonsense. February 2, 2011 in macroeconomics. Economists frequently mention the idea of an Optimal Currency Area. Does it. Barry Eichengreen. Does it. Even monetary equilibriumist Nick Rowe. If you understand monetary economics from a monetary-equilibrium perspective, this should strike you as exceedingly odd. Suggest that adjust...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

Money as a product | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2010/10/22/money-as-a-product

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Money as a product. October 22, 2010 in economics. This perspective grew out of my ongoing debate with Silas. Brand has produced a separate product, much as Gucci bags are not counterfeits of Chanel bags even if they look similar. If a competitor with a different brand produces lower quality coins, they will just ruin their product no one else’s. Most meth...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

The backrub economy, a simple mathematical model of monetary disequilibrium | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/the-backrub-economy-a-simple-mathematical-model-of-monetary-disequilibrium

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. The backrub economy, a simple mathematical model of monetary disequilibrium. April 7, 2012 in economics. Since I have been unable to find a simple mathematical model of monetary disequilibrium. If you find an error or want to make a technical or non-technical suggestion, please let me know. Though the model is fairly simple (it uses only simple calculu...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

Monetary Economics 1: money as a good | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/monetary-economics-1-money-as-a-good

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. This is the first part of a planned introduction to monetary economics. I imagine it will develop slowly, but hopefully I will stick with it. I plan to first post sections here and then revise them and place them into a single document. Please leave a comment if you have a comment or criticism. These two uses are dist...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

Bleg: A mathematical model of monetary disequilibrium | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2011/08/05/bleg-a-mathematical-model-of-monetary-disequilibrium

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Bleg: A mathematical model of monetary disequilibrium. August 5, 2011 in macroeconomics. Here’s an example of what I would expect such a model to look like:. Econ 101 – introduction to microeconomics. Professional Voting: A Proposal for Democracy Reform. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Enter your comment here.

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

Is value stored as money lost? | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2011/02/11/is-value-stored-as-money-lost

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. Is value stored as money lost? February 11, 2011 in macroeconomics. Money does not create anything. Value stored as money is value lost; lost because it represents resources not directed towards capital. As I’ve said before. That said, it’s conceptually easy to make money a poor store of value: give it a large negative interest rate. This is nece...Monetar...

goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com

PyMC 3 guided examples in IPython notebook | Good Morning, Economics

https://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/pymc-3-guided-examples-in-ipython-notebook

Good Morning, Economics. Thoughts on economics and political economy. Monetary Economics 1: money as a good. Monetary Economics 2: money as a product. PyMC 3 guided examples in IPython notebook. March 24, 2013 in statistics. Estimated log volatility path for 400 days of the S&P 500. I wrote up some guided examples for the development version of PyMC 3 in IPython notebook, and they came out beautifully. A simple tutorial model. And a more impressive stochastic volatility example. Leave a Reply Cancel reply.

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Calibrated Probability Assessment

Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are "well calibrated" meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability (say 60%) that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60% of events judged to have a 60% chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list:.

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