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Sunday, January 27, 2008. Obama's South Carolina victory not simply a consequence of high black voter turnout. Brian has done some no-nonsense calculations. Showing that even with a black voter turnout as low as 18%, Obama would have won South Carolina. Monday, January 21, 2008. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH primary. Tuesday, January 15, 2008. Complete map of Diebold precincts. Here you go. Red is Diebold. Diebold effect sticks around, need a proper statistician. I'd like someone who...

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Continuation | call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com Reviews

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Sunday, January 27, 2008. Obama's South Carolina victory not simply a consequence of high black voter turnout. Brian has done some no-nonsense calculations. Showing that even with a black voter turnout as low as 18%, Obama would have won South Carolina. Monday, January 21, 2008. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH primary. Tuesday, January 15, 2008. Complete map of Diebold precincts. Here you go. Red is Diebold. Diebold effect sticks around, need a proper statistician. I'd like someone who...

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Continuation | call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com Reviews

https://call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com

Sunday, January 27, 2008. Obama's South Carolina victory not simply a consequence of high black voter turnout. Brian has done some no-nonsense calculations. Showing that even with a black voter turnout as low as 18%, Obama would have won South Carolina. Monday, January 21, 2008. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH primary. Tuesday, January 15, 2008. Complete map of Diebold precincts. Here you go. Red is Diebold. Diebold effect sticks around, need a proper statistician. I'd like someone who...

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call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com

1

Continuation: Statistical exploration of New Hampshire Democratic primary results

http://www.call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/statistical-exploration-of-new.html

Thursday, January 10, 2008. Statistical exploration of New Hampshire Democratic primary results. A number of people have been surprised by the unexpectedly high score of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Some people noticed that there was a strong correlation between precincts using Diebold equipment and Hillary's score. Other noticed notable discrepancies between polls and the results. Yet others have pointed to some exit polls that do not match with the official results. So far, so good. In hand-counte...

2

Continuation: Recounts requested!

http://www.call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/recounts-requested.html

Saturday, January 12, 2008. Kucinich and Howard asked for recounts. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator. January 12, 2008 at 2:07 PM. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Obamas South Carolina victory not simply a conseq. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH. Complete map of Diebold precincts. Diebold effect sticks around, need a proper statis. Geographical explanation might not be as watertigh. Request voting precinct geographical data. Archive of R files and data.

3

Continuation: Geographical explanation might not be as watertight after all...

http://www.call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/geographical-explanation-might-not-be.html

Monday, January 14, 2008. Geographical explanation might not be as watertight after all. Reddit user brfox has started his blog. On election statistics and did some analysis taking the geographic distribution of states into account. It seems that there is still a Diebold effect. Meanwhile a column at Salon.com. Argues geography is the explanation. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Obamas South Carolina victory not simply a conseq. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH.

4

Continuation: Archive of R files and data

http://www.call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/archive-of-r-files-and-data.html

Sunday, January 13, 2008. Archive of R files and data. You can download a .tar.gz file containing the R scripts and the CSV data here. All my code is up at: http:/ www.proles.net/nh/. The code.r file is my commented analysis, and the .csv file is just a mirror of the same data from here. You can just step through my analysis, using summary() on the models as you go to see the results for yourself. Anyway, hope this helps. January 14, 2008 at 12:19 AM. Var(Clinton[hand= 1],na.rm=T). You are obviously, unl...

5

Continuation: Controlling for employment, age, housing or income data doesn't remove the Diebold effect

http://www.call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com/2008/01/controlling-for-demographic-data-doesnt.html

Sunday, January 13, 2008. Controlling for employment, age, housing or income data doesn't remove the Diebold effect. While I was spending a quiet Sunday I didn't notice the large amount of activity here. Thanks for all your comments and your data! I thought this analysis was lost in the blogosphere. Meanwhile other have done their own analyses and it seems that the effect doesn't disappear. They have also published their own data in computer-readable format. Here is the R command:. Nh$Edwards 0.8830 ...

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electionstats.wordpress.com

Super Tuesday states and the race of their voters | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/01/27/super-tuesday-states-and-the-race-of-their-voters

January 27, 2008. Super Tuesday states and the race of their voters. 8212; Brian @ 10:33 pm. Super Tuesday is coming up. Based on the differing support that the candidates received based on the voters race (in South Carolina in particular), I though it would be interesting to see the racial makeup of the states in Super Tuesday. Also, here’s a striking map from the US Census. Showing where African Americans make up larger fractions of the population – on a county-by-county basis. 4 Comments ». If you und...

electionstats.wordpress.com

WA state primary prediction: Obama will keep his lead | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/wa-state-primary-prediction-obama-will-keep-his-lead

February 20, 2008. WA state primary prediction: Obama will keep his lead. 8212; Brian @ 11:00 am. About 60-80% of the ballots in the WA State Democrat primary have been counted. Another way to look at this is that of the 500,000 Democrat ballots counted, Obama got 16,000 more than Clinton. After counting the remaining 200,000 ballots, Obama should widen his lead to 25,000. Here is a web page showing the data: http:/ www.distantconstellation.com/elections/WA/wa pred.cgi. Leave a Comment ». Build a website...

electionstats.wordpress.com

Florida Primary – preparing to follow results | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/01/29/florida-primary-preparing-to-follow-results

January 29, 2008. Florida Primary – preparing to follow results. 8212; Brian @ 10:51 am. Has set up a really great website. To report the results for today’s primary. Interestingly, of their 67 counties, 14 use touch-screen voting machines. Also, in addition to absentee and polling place voting, they have early-voting where you can go to a nearby govt office and cast your vote up to 2 weeks before today. Http:/ enight.dos.state.fl.us/ResultsExtract.Asp? I made a script. 1 Comment ». I am very glad I foun...

electionstats.wordpress.com

Election night prediction tool | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/election-night-prediction-tool

October 21, 2008. Election night prediction tool. 8212; Brian @ 10:36 pm. Anyway, subscribe to my feed and I’ll post a link here when it is ready. And, obviously it will only be useful for a couple hours on Nov 4th – less than 20 days away! Leave a Comment ». Feed for comments on this post. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:. Address never made public). You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out.

electionstats.wordpress.com

Racial Super Tuesday | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/racial-super-tuesday

2000 census % black. 2004 primary % white. 2004 primary % black. 2004 primary % latino. 2004 primary % asian. 2004 primary % other. Sources: http:/ www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf. Http:/ www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NY/index.html. See this page for more info. 1 Comment ». Pingback by Super Tuesday states and the race of their voters « Election Stats. 8212; January 28, 2008 @ 6:48 pm. Feed for comments on this post. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Mary ...

electionstats.wordpress.com

Obama’s SC win did not need a large black turnout | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/obamas-sc-win-did-not-need-a-large-black-turnout

January 26, 2008. Obama’s SC win did not need a large black turnout. 8212; Brian @ 9:18 pm. Obama would have won South Carolina even if only 18% of the voters were black. I used these pieces of data of estimate the candidates’ results had the African American turnout been much lower:. Obama had 55% (295,091). Clinton had 27% (141,128). Edwards had 18% (93,552). And Exit Poll Data. 55% of Democrat primary voters were African American. Breakdown: Obama:78%, Clinton:19%, Edwards:2%. 45% were white or other.

electionstats.wordpress.com

Real Statisticians look at the NH primary | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/01/20/real-statisticians-look-at-the-nh-primary

January 20, 2008. Real Statisticians look at the NH primary. 8212; Brian @ 9:36 pm. Some professional statisticians have taken a look at this data and determined that there are no significant correlations between the counting method and Clinton winning, when taking other variables into account. These other variables include location, past voting, affluence, and others. Http:/ www.stat.columbia.edu/ cook/movabletype/archives/2008/01/voting technolo.html. 3 Comments ». Pingback by Pages tagged "real".

electionstats.wordpress.com

Great poll tracking sites | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/great-poll-tracking-sites

October 18, 2008. Great poll tracking sites. 8212; Brian @ 10:45 pm. Http:/ www.fivethirtyeight.com. Http:/ www.electoral-vote.com. Http:/ www.realclearpolitics.com. Even though Obama has got momentum and a serious advantage, I think it is going to be very close. Leave a Comment ». Feed for comments on this post. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:. Address never made public). Notify me of new comments via email.

electionstats.wordpress.com

How will Edwards’ supporters vote? | Election Stats

https://electionstats.wordpress.com/2008/01/30/how-will-edwards-supporters-vote

January 30, 2008. How will Edwards’ supporters vote? 8212; Brian @ 11:07 pm. I’ve assumed that Edwards and Obama seem to be drawing from the same pool of voters, and that he has been drawing votes away from Obama. But, maybe Edwards and Clinton are both fighting over the traditional Dems and Obama is getting a lot of Independent support? With an estimated 40% of the white vote (Clinton got 36% and Obama got 24%). So, maybe Edwards’ voters are uncomfortable voting for Obama? Will they all vote for Hillary?

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call-with-current-continuation.blogspot.com

Continuation

Sunday, January 27, 2008. Obama's South Carolina victory not simply a consequence of high black voter turnout. Brian has done some no-nonsense calculations. Showing that even with a black voter turnout as low as 18%, Obama would have won South Carolina. Monday, January 21, 2008. University of Michigan statistician studies the NH primary. Tuesday, January 15, 2008. Complete map of Diebold precincts. Here you go. Red is Diebold. Diebold effect sticks around, need a proper statistician. I'd like someone who...

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