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Harnessing Dynamic Change | – Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified | complexitydemystified.wordpress.com Reviews
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- Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified (by Patrick_Beautement)
Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures | Harnessing Dynamic Change
https://complexitydemystified.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/possibility-risk-asessments-and-dealing-with-possible-futures
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Transitioning to Adaptive, Forward-looking Ways-of-Working. Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem →. Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures. December 14, 2014. There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. Enter your comment here.
Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty | Harnessing Dynamic Change
https://complexitydemystified.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/prediction-in-the-face-of-deep-uncertainty
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem. War on Terror – always unwinnable? Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty. December 14, 2014. So what about prediction? What is the difference between a backward-looking approaches to decision-making and an anticipatory forward-looking ones ( discussed here. It’s partly about the difference between probability (and risk) and possibility. And, anyway, why is prediction such a challenge? The tr...
Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem | Harnessing Dynamic Change
https://complexitydemystified.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/limits-to-modelling-godels-incompleteness-theorem
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures. Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty →. Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem. December 14, 2014. But first, the baselines. As Professor Michael Batty said in 2009 …. This entry was posted in Academic complexity. Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures. Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty →. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. On Transitioning ...
Transitioning to Adaptive, Forward-looking Ways-of-Working | Harnessing Dynamic Change
https://complexitydemystified.wordpress.com/2012/09/30/transitioning-to-adaptive-forward-looking-ways-of-working
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Organisation forms and Contextual Complexities. Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures →. Transitioning to Adaptive, Forward-looking Ways-of-Working. September 30, 2012. In previous posts we talked about the different Aspects of adaptation. So, if you want to transition from backward-looking to forward-looking ways of working can that be done in one go? The chart below shows four basic options. To really start adapting Option...
Patrick_Beautement | Harnessing Dynamic Change
https://complexitydemystified.wordpress.com/author/pbeautement
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Author Archives: Patrick Beautement. ISIS Ascendant – Because the West gave up its Winning Strategy in 2001? December 3, 2015. A Winning Strategy Lost? The UK’s ‘Bin Laden Dossier‘ of 2001 reports that Bin Laden’s motivation was to wage jihad against countries (such as the USA and UK) engaging in ‘un-Islamic behaviour’. In his speeches, Bin Laden cited examples of … Continue reading →. War on Terror – always unwinnable? December 3, 2015. Agent-based...
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complexitydaemon | 爸爸和老公和博士
Australia’s chief anti-vaccination group in tatters. May 15, 2015. What’s left of the Australian Vaccination-skeptics Network, Inc? Answer: not much, at least officially. That the Australian Vaccination-skeptics Network’ (AVSN’s) Facebook page. Was handed over as a fan-operated page to a fake profile, “Ben Rush” (whom I have discussed previously. They have finally changed the name of the page to “Fans of the AV(S)N”. In addition, it is now mostly operated by the new admin Giselle Tonee. In other news, th...
complexitydemystified.wordpress.com
Harnessing Dynamic Change | – Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified
8211; Real-world Complexity Put to Use and Demystified. Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty. December 14, 2014. So what about prediction? What is the difference between a backward-looking approaches to decision-making and an anticipatory forward-looking ones ( discussed here. It’s partly about the difference between probability (and risk) and possibility. And, anyway, why is prediction such a challenge? 8221; He’s so right …. Self-evident, but are they? The trick, as the third chart shows, is the ...
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