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contextualtruth.com

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1

No Really, Recessions Really Are Back (In Spite of Central Bank Promises to the Contrary) | contextualtruthdotcom

http://contextualtruth.com/2014/10/09/no-really-recessions-really-are-back-in-spite-of-central-bank-promises-to-the-contrary/comment-page-1

No Really, Recessions Really Are Back (In Spite of Central Bank Promises to the Contrary). October 9, 2014. October 9, 2014. In my last post. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse. On Tuesday October 7th, Germany reported. A collapse in industrial production of 4% for the month of September, below the consensus expectation of -1.5%, and the largest MoM decrease since February 2009. Later in the morning, the IMF released. Wow and wow. Now we can unofficially (but really, it’s likely just a ma...

2

Hilsenrath Was Just More Fed Double Talk | contextualtruthdotcom

http://contextualtruth.com/2014/07/30/200

Hilsenrath Was Just More Fed Double Talk. July 30, 2014. July 30, 2014. A few days ago I commented on a Wall Street Journal article. Penned by Jon Hilsenrath, in which he writes that the Fed is engaged in an internal debate about when to raise interest rates. My comments were focused mainly on the improbability of this debate being a meaningful one, if not outright bogus, given the collapse in GDP expectations for this year. What the Fed says. What The Fed really means. 8211; Really, the economy is not f...

3

Have We Learned Nothing? Is Subprime 2.0 On The Horizon? | contextualtruthdotcom

http://contextualtruth.com/2014/05/16/have-we-learned-nothing-is-subprime-2-0-on-the-horizon

Have We Learned Nothing? Is Subprime 2.0 On The Horizon? May 16, 2014. May 16, 2014. A few days ago the Wall Street Journal published an article. In which it highlighted the appointment of a new director, Mel Watt, of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The FHFA is the overseer of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. There is so much wrong with story I don’t even know where to start. At the beginning, I guess:. Hmmmhere is a great idea: let’s repeat the same corrupt, politically directed channeling of credit perv...

4

The GDP Hole Just Got Bigger | contextualtruthdotcom

http://contextualtruth.com/2014/05/08/the-gdp-hole-just-got-bigger

The GDP Hole Just Got Bigger. May 8, 2014. May 8, 2014. Just a follow up note to my prior post on the mathematical improbability of a 3-handle GDP print that has been forecast for 2014, and how the 2014Q2 rebound will. Be so strong as to make 2014Q1 a wash from its weather related problems. It seems like 2014Q1 GDP is the gift that keeps on giving. Q1 -6% (Goldman’s estimate). Q2 3% (Goldman’s estimate). Q3 248% (average of Q3 GDP since the start of the recovery in 2009). Q4 286% (same as with Q3). The n...

5

contextualtruthdotcom | Page 2

http://contextualtruth.com/page/2

The GDP Hole Just Got Bigger. May 8, 2014. May 8, 2014. Just a follow up note to my prior post on the mathematical improbability of a 3-handle GDP print that has been forecast for 2014, and how the 2014Q2 rebound will. Be so strong as to make 2014Q1 a wash from its weather related problems. It seems like 2014Q1 GDP is the gift that keeps on giving. Q1 -6% (Goldman’s estimate). Q2 3% (Goldman’s estimate). Q3 248% (average of Q3 GDP since the start of the recovery in 2009). Q4 286% (same as with Q3). The n...

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November 4, 2014. By now, much has been said and written about the October stock and commodity market swoon. Most of it, I believe, is either flat out wrong or simply misinformed. In my view, the dollar is definitely ground zero for what happened in financial markets this month. But the economic rationale offered up by the chattering classes – that the Fed is finally embarking on its long awaited tightening cycle which would, in time, normalize rates from their current lows is simply wrong. I believe the...

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