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Crystal Prison Zone

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Wednesday, December 13, 2017. How to Play a Prediction Market. In this post, I'll teach you how to place bets to most effectively get the largest payout possible. In so doing, you'll do more to calibrate the market to your predictions. Let's get ready to corner the replication market! How does a prediction market work? The market price for a YES share is p,. The probability of the outcome. The market price for a NO share is (1- p. Your expected payo...

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A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Wednesday, December 13, 2017. How to Play a Prediction Market. In this post, I'll teach you how to place bets to most effectively get the largest payout possible. In so doing, you'll do more to calibrate the market to your predictions. Let's get ready to corner the replication market! How does a prediction market work? The market price for a YES share is p,. The probability of the outcome. The market price for a NO share is (1- p. Your expected payo...
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Crystal Prison Zone | crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com Reviews

https://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Wednesday, December 13, 2017. How to Play a Prediction Market. In this post, I'll teach you how to place bets to most effectively get the largest payout possible. In so doing, you'll do more to calibrate the market to your predictions. Let's get ready to corner the replication market! How does a prediction market work? The market price for a YES share is p,. The probability of the outcome. The market price for a NO share is (1- p. Your expected payo...

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1

Crystal Prison Zone: July 2014

http://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com/2014_07_01_archive.html

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Tuesday, July 1, 2014. Can p-curve detect p-hacking through moderator trawling? Dr Simonsohn has contacted me and indicated a possible error in my algorithm. The results presented here could be invalid. We are talking back in forth and I am trying to fix my code. Stay tuned! Maybe the effect can be seen after error trials, but not after successful trials? In essence, this is slicing the data until one manages to find a subset of the data that does s...

2

Crystal Prison Zone: Bayesian Perspectives on Publication Bias

http://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com/2015/07/bayesian-perspectives-on-publication.html

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Friday, July 3, 2015. Bayesian Perspectives on Publication Bias. I have two problems with statistics in psychological science. They are:. Everybody speaks in categorical yes/no answers (statistical significance) rather than continuous, probabilistic answers (probably yes, probably no, not enough data to tell). Hacking (torturing the data until it gives you significance). That's a nice thought, but publication bias and p. H0) * probability(H0) ( d.

3

Crystal Prison Zone: April 2015

http://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com/2015_04_01_archive.html

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Monday, April 20, 2015. Bayes Factor: Asking the Right Questions. By comparison, Bayesian model comparison has neither weakness of NHST. First, it yields a "Bayes factor", the multiplicative and continuous change in beliefs effected by the data. Second, it can yield Bayes factors favoring the null hypothesis over a specified alternative hypothesis. When a default Bayesian test favors the null. The data favor the null hypothesis more than that one.

4

Crystal Prison Zone: April 2012

http://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com/2012_04_01_archive.html

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Tuesday, April 10, 2012. Not Just Solid Food, But Real Food. Things have been quiet around here because I've been striving to get published elsewhere! Today I have an article on Medium Difficulty: Not Just Solid Food, But Real Food. Last week, John Walker over at RPS wrote an editorial asking that games grow up and try taking on more serious themes. Where is our criticism? Where is our subversion? Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). View my complete profile.

5

Crystal Prison Zone: December 2013

http://crystalprisonzone.blogspot.com/2013_12_01_archive.html

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Monday, December 9, 2013. Outrageous Fortune, pt. 1. Most outcomes are near the average, with equal amounts of "good luck" (area above green line) and "bad luck" (area below red line). Luck should average out. Before the effect of strategy can be reliably detected as something above and beyond the effect of luck. An example: Goofus and Gallant. For the following example, I'll use Dungeons and Dragons. For now, let's assume a base accuracy of 50%&#46...

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Statistics as math, statistics as tools – The Hardest Science

https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/statistics-as-math-statistics-as-tools

Statistics as math, statistics as tools. December 4, 2014. How do you think about statistical methods in science? Are statistics a matter of math and logic? Or are they a useful tool? Over time, I have noticed that these seem to be two implicit frames for thinking about statistics. Both are useful, but they tend to be more common in different research communities. And I think sometimes conversations get off track when people are using different ones. Frame 1 is statistics as math and logic. That traditio...

hardsci.wordpress.com hardsci.wordpress.com

An open review of Many Labs 3: Much to learn – The Hardest Science

https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2015/03/12/an-open-review-of-many-labs-3-much-to-learn

An open review of Many Labs 3: Much to learn. March 12, 2015. March 12, 2015. A pre-publication manuscript for the Many Labs 3. A major goal was to examine whether time of semester moderates effect sizes, testing the common intuition among researchers that subjects are “worse” (less attentive) at the end of the term. But really, there is much more to it than that:. And perhaps less obviously, two significant effects — even in the same direction — can be very different. So the appropriate test. Is whether...

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Some thoughts on replication and falsifiability: Is this a chance to do better? – The Hardest Science

https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/some-thoughts-on-replication-and-falsifiability-is-this-a-chance-to-do-better

Some thoughts on replication and falsifiability: Is this a chance to do better? July 1, 2014. Most psychologists would probably endorse falsification. As an important part of science. But in practice we rarely do it right. As others have observed. From your theory. On the flip side, a theory is corroborated when it survives many risky opportunities to fail. So in the grand scheme, I don’t think we should self-flagellate too much about being poor theorists or succumb to physics envy. Most of the...So with...

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Is there p-hacking in a new breastfeeding study? And is disclosure enough? – The Hardest Science

https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2015/03/18/is-there-p-hacking-in-a-new-breastfeeding-study-and-is-disclosure-enough

Is there p-hacking in a new breastfeeding study? And is disclosure enough? March 18, 2015. March 18, 2015. There is a new study out about the benefits of breastfeeding on eventual adult IQ, published in The Lancet Global Health. It’s getting lots of news coverage, for example in NPR. A friend shared a link and asked what I thought of it. So I took a look at the article and came across this (emphasis added):. We present the one with the lower p value. From time to time students ask, Am I allowed to do.

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What counts as a successful or failed replication? – The Hardest Science

https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/what-counts-as-a-successful-or-failed-replication

What counts as a successful or failed replication? October 5, 2012. Let’s say that some theory states that people in psychological state A1 will engage in behavior B more than people in psychological state A2. Suppose that, a priori, the theory allows us to make this directional prediction, but not a prediction about the size of the effect. Here’s the question: did Study 2 successfully replicate Study 1? My second problem is that we should always be putting theoretical statements to multiple tests. T...

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Musings of a Sega Racing Fan: Sega Is Most Diverse Racing Dev! Informative List...

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Musings of a Sega Racing Fan. Hello everybody. I've been a fan of Sega Racing games (Daytona USA 1/2, Scud Race, OutRun 1/2, Sega Rally, Crazy Taxi, Virtua Racing, etc.) ever since I first played Daytona USA 2 in the arcade around 2002. I like them and try to promote them as much as I can. Let everyone know about the magic that is Sega Racing Games! Sega Is Most Diverse Racing Dev! NOTE: If I missed an IMPORTANT game or two, let me know so I can add it. TIMES (added Rad Racer 1 and 2). Initial D Stage 1-5.

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Statistics Diary | The Etz-Files

https://alexanderetz.com/statistics-diary

Blogging about science, statistics, and psychology. I’m going to write a diary entry every day, detailing a way in which I’ve thought about, interacted with, or discussed statistics. I’ve been inspired to do this by Andrew Gelman, here. Click the links below to read my deepest, most personal thoughts (about statistics and sometimes other related things). Click the different months to check it out, or you can pick one from the dropdown menu above. One thought on “ Statistics Diary. Enter your comment here.

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Statistics | The Etz-Files

https://alexanderetz.com/tag/statistics

Blogging about science, statistics, and psychology. New revision of How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps. September 4, 2016. September 4, 2016. Quentin, Fabian, Peter, Beth and I recently resubmitted our manuscript titled “How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps: An annotated reading list” that we initially submitted earlier this year. You can find an updated preprint here. This was quite a minor revision. The largest change to the paper. You’ll have to check out the paper. July 20, 2016.

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Fun Science | The Etz-Files

https://alexanderetz.com/category/fun-science

Blogging about science, statistics, and psychology. Understanding Bayes: Visualization of the Bayes Factor. August 9, 2015. November 15, 2015. In the first post. The likelihood is the workhorse of Bayesian inference. In order to understand Bayesian parameter estimation you need to understand the likelihood. In order to understand Bayesian model comparison (Bayes factors) you need to understand the likelihood and likelihood ratios. I’ve shown in another post. There’s that coin again. In that previous post.

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January 2015 | The Etz-Files

https://alexanderetz.com/statistics-diary/january-2015

Blogging about science, statistics, and psychology. I had a discussion. I read a wonderful article. Today by EJ Wagenmakers and colleagues (Krypotos, Criss, and Iverson) detailing the effects of nonlinear transformations on different types of interactions (ordinal, crossover, etc). I wish they taught this in my stats classes! Then i read a blog post. The blog sparked a lot of discussion on Twitter. And lead us down the typical rabbit-hole that discussions of Bayesian statistics lend themselves to. In...

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Crystal Prison Zone

A psychologist's thoughts on how and why we play games. Wednesday, December 13, 2017. How to Play a Prediction Market. In this post, I'll teach you how to place bets to most effectively get the largest payout possible. In so doing, you'll do more to calibrate the market to your predictions. Let's get ready to corner the replication market! How does a prediction market work? The market price for a YES share is p,. The probability of the outcome. The market price for a NO share is (1- p. Your expected payo...

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Tuesday, 1 April 2008. Hi my name is priya and i like the colour blue. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Hi my name is priya and i like the colour blue. View my complete profile.

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