customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com

Custom Probability Distributions

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Custom probability distributions are tailored to the uncertainty at hand without artificial limitations. Though business, finance, science, engineering, and forecasting frequently need such distributions, they have not been available until now. Respectively; and that the distribution is bounded by 0 and 100 percent quantiles. These inputs are in fact the parameters. Of this distribution: changing them would change its shape accordingly.

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Custom Probability Distributions | customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com Reviews

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Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Custom probability distributions are tailored to the uncertainty at hand without artificial limitations. Though business, finance, science, engineering, and forecasting frequently need such distributions, they have not been available until now. Respectively; and that the distribution is bounded by 0 and 100 percent quantiles. These inputs are in fact the parameters. Of this distribution: changing them would change its shape accordingly.

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Custom Probability Distributions | customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com Reviews

https://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Custom probability distributions are tailored to the uncertainty at hand without artificial limitations. Though business, finance, science, engineering, and forecasting frequently need such distributions, they have not been available until now. Respectively; and that the distribution is bounded by 0 and 100 percent quantiles. These inputs are in fact the parameters. Of this distribution: changing them would change its shape accordingly.

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customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com

1

Custom Probability Distributions

http://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com/dataparameters.html

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. For example, given data on daily stock price changes, how can one reasonably determine a probability distribution over such future changes? How can one reasonably estimate the value of a soon-to-mature stock option? Given the range and trend of past measurements of the thickness of the ozone layer over Australia, how can one reasonably predict the range future measurements? Normally distributed. Like salmon, steelhead migrate to the ocea...

2

Custom Probability Distributions

http://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com/illustration.html

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. A business that buys and resolves troubled loans wants to raise new capital, but potential investors are nervous about the risk. Based on data from the first year of operation, such investors believe that some individual loans would be very profitable: about 1 in 4 would yield a profit of 25% or more, about 1 in 10 would yield 50 percent or more, and in about 2 in 100 would more than double their money (100 percent profit). Specifically, inv...

3

Custom Probability Distributions

http://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com/home.html

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Custom probability distributions are tailored to the uncertainty at hand without artificial limitations. Though business, finance, science, engineering, and forecasting frequently need such distributions, they have not been available until now. Respectively; and that the distribution is bounded by 0 and 100 percent quantiles. These inputs are in fact the parameters. Of this distribution: changing them would change its shape accordingly.

4

Custom Probability Distributions

http://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com/illustration/simulationresults.html

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Potential investors in a business that buys and resolves troubled loans would like to know the levels of risk and expected return for investing in such loans. For each individual loan, there is a greater than 50% chance of losing money, so such investments are highly risky. But at least 25% of such loans are expected to be highly profitable (see input probability assessments. 10 Loan Porfolio, Internal Rate of Return (%) Cumulative.

5

Custom Probability Distributions

http://customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com/history.html

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. In October 2008, Tom Keelin and Brad Powley presented some simulation methods developed by Keelin Reeds Partners (KR) to a group of graduate students and faculty in Stanford's Management Science and Engineering department. Afterwards, Professor Ron Howard. Tom's thesis advisor from the 1970's and Brad's thesis advisor three decades hence, asked if KR's in-house simulation software was capable of taking arbitrary points (assessed quantiles.

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customprobabilitydistributions.keelin.com

Custom Probability Distributions

Accurate probabilistic representations. Perfect for simulation. Custom probability distributions are tailored to the uncertainty at hand without artificial limitations. Though business, finance, science, engineering, and forecasting frequently need such distributions, they have not been available until now. Respectively; and that the distribution is bounded by 0 and 100 percent quantiles. These inputs are in fact the parameters. Of this distribution: changing them would change its shape accordingly.

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