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Decision Frameworks

Thursday, November 17, 2011. November 15, 2011. CPDEP - Gumball 2011 Blog. Anyone know Kent Rinehart? At this year’s forum, those who chose to play the game were asked for their P10 – P90 estimates of the number of gumballs in the container. Then, they were asked to provide an estimate of how many were actually in the jar. Their ballots were recorded, the gumballs were counted and the results were reviewed. Now why do we run this game? Number of estimates: 104. Range of estimates: 72-50000. 2) As a resul...

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Decision Frameworks | decisionframeworks.blogspot.com Reviews
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Thursday, November 17, 2011. November 15, 2011. CPDEP - Gumball 2011 Blog. Anyone know Kent Rinehart? At this year’s forum, those who chose to play the game were asked for their P10 – P90 estimates of the number of gumballs in the container. Then, they were asked to provide an estimate of how many were actually in the jar. Their ballots were recorded, the gumballs were counted and the results were reviewed. Now why do we run this game? Number of estimates: 104. Range of estimates: 72-50000. 2) As a resul...
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Decision Frameworks | decisionframeworks.blogspot.com Reviews

https://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com

Thursday, November 17, 2011. November 15, 2011. CPDEP - Gumball 2011 Blog. Anyone know Kent Rinehart? At this year’s forum, those who chose to play the game were asked for their P10 – P90 estimates of the number of gumballs in the container. Then, they were asked to provide an estimate of how many were actually in the jar. Their ballots were recorded, the gumballs were counted and the results were reviewed. Now why do we run this game? Number of estimates: 104. Range of estimates: 72-50000. 2) As a resul...

INTERNAL PAGES

decisionframeworks.blogspot.com decisionframeworks.blogspot.com
1

Decision Frameworks: October 2010

http://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com/2010_10_01_archive.html

Sunday, October 31, 2010. New Course Offering – Working with Risk and Uncertainty. Improving Uncertainty Assessments that Underpin Our Analyses. Posted by Decision Frameworks. Links to this post. Wednesday, October 20, 2010. Monte Carlo vs. Decision Trees – Round One. By Jan Schulze, Vice President, Software Development. A Two Dimensional Plot of the Solution Space. Figure A - Two Dimensional Problem Space. A Monte Carlo Approach. Figure B - Monte Carlo Model. A Decision Tree Approach. Now, let us delve ...

2

Decision Frameworks: Why Trees

http://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com/2010/02/why-trees.html

Wednesday, February 10, 2010. Decision tree analysis has been around for years. It’s rare to find someone who’s never heard of it. Yet from my experience, the tool is vastly underutilized in many companies. Why? Garbage in, Garbage out. It’s So Subjective. It is But I would also argue that practically every number in every economic evaluation is subjective, including the future tax and royalty rates (just ask the E&P companies who operate in Alberta! Every stakeholder brings a different perspective to a ...

3

Decision Frameworks: December 2010

http://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com/2010_12_01_archive.html

Thursday, December 16, 2010. INFORMS Annual Meeting - Gumball 2010 Blog. From Sunday, November 7 through Wednesday, November 10, 2010, we participated in the 2010 INFORMS Annual Meeting at the Conference Center in Austin, Texas We had a booth, ran a pre-meeting seminar and showcased our latest decision framing (DTrio) and decision tree software (TreeTop) at the booth and in a Tuesday morning demonstration. So without another wasted breath, here are the results:. Average of all estimates. As stated above,...

4

Decision Frameworks: November 2011

http://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html

Thursday, November 17, 2011. November 15, 2011. CPDEP - Gumball 2011 Blog. Anyone know Kent Rinehart? At this year’s forum, those who chose to play the game were asked for their P10 – P90 estimates of the number of gumballs in the container. Then, they were asked to provide an estimate of how many were actually in the jar. Their ballots were recorded, the gumballs were counted and the results were reviewed. Now why do we run this game? Number of estimates: 104. Range of estimates: 72-50000. 2) As a resul...

5

Decision Frameworks: INFORMS Annual Meeting - Gumball 2010 Blog

http://decisionframeworks.blogspot.com/2010/12/informs-annual-meeting-gumball-2010.html

Thursday, December 16, 2010. INFORMS Annual Meeting - Gumball 2010 Blog. From Sunday, November 7 through Wednesday, November 10, 2010, we participated in the 2010 INFORMS Annual Meeting at the Conference Center in Austin, Texas We had a booth, ran a pre-meeting seminar and showcased our latest decision framing (DTrio) and decision tree software (TreeTop) at the booth and in a Tuesday morning demonstration. So without another wasted breath, here are the results:. Average of all estimates. As stated above,...

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Decision Frameworks

Thursday, November 17, 2011. November 15, 2011. CPDEP - Gumball 2011 Blog. Anyone know Kent Rinehart? At this year’s forum, those who chose to play the game were asked for their P10 – P90 estimates of the number of gumballs in the container. Then, they were asked to provide an estimate of how many were actually in the jar. Their ballots were recorded, the gumballs were counted and the results were reviewed. Now why do we run this game? Number of estimates: 104. Range of estimates: 72-50000. 2) As a resul...

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