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election labPutting elections under the microscope
http://electionlab.wordpress.com/
Putting elections under the microscope
http://electionlab.wordpress.com/
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election lab | electionlab.wordpress.com Reviews
https://electionlab.wordpress.com
Putting elections under the microscope
electionlab.wordpress.com
Does covariance matter? | election lab
https://electionlab.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/does-covariance-matter
Putting elections under the microscope. Leng and I had a really interesting exchange with Simon Jackman. On Twitter yesterday. Me and my whopping eight followers (hi mum) would probably agree that I suck at Twitter. It became difficult to continue the discussion with the 140 character limit, so Leng and I thought we’d try and outline it here. EMH), were it to hold, implied the seats should be treated as independent. Here’s what we think Simon’s saying:. 1 Bettors can bet on any seat. We agree with 1-4, b...
Our final predictions: Seat Count | election lab
https://electionlab.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/our-final-predictions-seat-count
Putting elections under the microscope. Our final predictions: Seat Count. Here are our final predictions. 1 Coalition wins government gold with 99 seats. 2 ALP a polite runners up with 48 seats. 3 Independents win bronze with 3 seats. The difference between our predictions and those based on national polls is that national polls have to assume uniform swings. For example, extrapolating from the latest Roy Morgan poll. Off a 2PP of 53.1%. Pottinger Model Final Prediction:. Australian Election is here!
Some friendly debate | election lab
https://electionlab.wordpress.com/2013/09/23/response-to-kevin-bonham
Putting elections under the microscope. Kevin Bonham has written a very detailed summary. Of the performance of seat-level betting markets in the last election. It’s well worth reading — go check it out. We’ve really enjoyed reading Kevin’s blog and his analysis. In a spirit of friendly debate, we wanted to respond to a few comments that are directly relevant to this blog. Kevin writes:. We disagree here, for two reasons. First, changes in covariance structure don’t just change the. It baffles me that ex...
Our final predictions: how did they go? | election lab
https://electionlab.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/our-final-predictions-how-did-they-go
Putting elections under the microscope. Our final predictions: how did they go? The election is finally over! At time of writing. The Coalition stand to hold 89 seats and Labor 57 seats, with the remaining 4 seats going to a Green and independents. It seems likely these numbers may well change in the coming weeks as postal votes come in for a few close electorates, but we’ll go with them for now. What could we have done better? Of our maximum covariance model, this is worse than we’d expected! Not really...
Update: Labor wipeout in Tasmania? | election lab
https://electionlab.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/update-labor-wipeout-in-tasmania
Putting elections under the microscope. Update: Labor wipeout in Tasmania? We posted a few weeks ago about the likelihood of a complete Labor wipeout. In Tasmania: our models gave it a probability somewhere between 5% and 25%. Even a probability of 5% seemed pretty high at the time, given Labor currently hold every seat in Tasmania, except for Denison (held by Andrew Wilkie). This entry was tagged election. Labor’s electoral prospects still deteriorating. AFR piece, September 6 →. September 6, 2013.
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David and Jonathan | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/david-and-jonathan
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Tag Archives: David and Jonathan. Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday. June 20, 2015. What I’ve been reading …. Ikani's Blog- Musings, Rantings and Everything else! Sean F. Winter. Rev Dr Chris Walker. Seeking, Searching, Sitting in the Sacred. Living a Different Story. A funny thing happened on the way . Getting There. 2 steps forward, 1 back. The world according to carox. Sermon: ...
Rev Doc Geek | Theology, pop culture, and other essential things | Page 2
https://revdocgeek.com/page/2
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Newer posts →. Sermon: Not just an idle tale! March 27, 2016. Easter Sunday, 27. Of March, 2016. T]hese words seemed to them an idle tale, and they did not believe them.’. Today, Easter Sunday, we celebrate the ultimate unexpected twist in the tale. We remember the ultimate act of civil disobedience, in which someone executed by the powerful Roman Empire just refused to stay dead! Continue reading →. And ou...
King David | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/king-david
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Tag Archives: King David. Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday. June 20, 2015. What I’ve been reading …. Ikani's Blog- Musings, Rantings and Everything else! Sean F. Winter. Rev Dr Chris Walker. Seeking, Searching, Sitting in the Sacred. Living a Different Story. A funny thing happened on the way . Getting There. 2 steps forward, 1 back. The world according to carox. Sermon: Calling ...
marriage | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/marriage
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. A letter to the Prime Minister on Marriage Equality. August 13, 2015. But the letter is still important because the issue will not go away, and because it shows that Christians are not all of one mind on the question. Continue reading →. A Wedding Sermon for Susan and Daniel. August 20, 2014. No, the church shouldn’t celebrate same-sex marriages Part 2. September 28, 2013. September 28, 2013. I answer ̵...
A letter to the Prime Minister on Marriage Equality | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/2015/08/13/a-letter-to-the-prime-minister-on-marriage-equality
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday. Sermon: And, again, the Uniting Church is not a Bible-believing church →. A letter to the Prime Minister on Marriage Equality. August 13, 2015. C) Alex Lee / BuzzFeed. The Hon Tony Abbott MP. Cc: Liberal National Party Caucus. Christian Support for Same-Sex Marriage. We believe that a Bill to amend the Act to allow for same-sex marriage should be...
asylum seekers | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/asylum-seekers
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Tag Archives: asylum seekers. Sermon: Do we really ‘believe in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ’? Welcoming refugees and asylum seekers. September 4, 2015. James demands that Christians follow the ethical direction of Jesus’ life, the way Jesus cared for people. He challenges his first readers, and us, to be involved in justice in the same way that Jesus was. Continue reading →. June 20, 2015. April 29, 2015.
Uniting Church | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/uniting-church
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Tag Archives: Uniting Church. Sermon: More about justice (really, Avril is obsessed). May 8, 2016. Whenever we find ourselves tired and frustrated by injustice in the world, remember the story of the campaign against slavery. Continue reading →. Sermon for the World Day of Prayer: Not much about Cuba but a lot about Child Abuse. March 3, 2016. World Day of Prayer. June 20, 2015. August 10, 2014. Sermon for ...
refugees | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/tag/refugees
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Sermon: Do we really ‘believe in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ’? Welcoming refugees and asylum seekers. September 4, 2015. James demands that Christians follow the ethical direction of Jesus’ life, the way Jesus cared for people. He challenges his first readers, and us, to be involved in justice in the same way that Jesus was. Continue reading →. Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday.
Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday | Rev Doc Geek
https://revdocgeek.com/2015/06/20/sermon-friendship-refugees-asylum-seekers-and-a-birthday
Theology, pop culture, and other essential things. About this new blog and me. The story so far …. Reflection: Two and a half days in to the Ration Challenge. A letter to the Prime Minister on Marriage Equality →. Sermon: Friendship, refugees, asylum seekers, and a birthday. June 20, 2015. Sermon for 21 June 2015. 1 Samuel 17:57-18:5, 10-16. Jonathan is ‘the friend few of us deserve but most of us would dearly love to have’. [1]. How many of our own friendships can live up to this biblical model? Of what...
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election lab
Putting elections under the microscope. Kevin Bonham has written a very detailed summary. Of the performance of seat-level betting markets in the last election. It’s well worth reading — go check it out. We’ve really enjoyed reading Kevin’s blog and his analysis. In a spirit of friendly debate, we wanted to respond to a few comments that are directly relevant to this blog. Kevin writes:. We disagree here, for two reasons. First, changes in covariance structure don’t just change the. It baffles me that ex...
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Election Law
The law of politics and the politics of law: election law, the California recall, campaign finance, legislation, voting rights, initiatives, redistricting. Rick Hasen's web log (blog). Wednesday, October 01, 2003. This blog has moved. Please point your browser to http:/ electionlawblog.org. Posted by Rick 6:03 AM. Rick Hasen's home page at Loyola Law School, Los Angeles. Contact Rick by e-mail. Profile of Rick in the. Los Angeles Daily Journal. Dislosure: My role in some election law litigation. Caltech-...
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