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Beautifully Bayesian - How to do AB Testing with Discrete Rewards? – Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
http://ewulczyn.github.io/ab_testing_with_multinomial_data
Data Scientist @ WMF. Beautifully Bayesian - How to do AB Testing with Discrete Rewards? The probability that one design gives a higher expected reward than another. Confidence intervals for the percent difference in expected reward between two designs. Fundraising Banners offer a potential donor a small set suggested donation amounts. The image below shows a sample banner:. A primer on Bayesian Stats and Monte Carlo Methods. Getting a Distribution Over the Expected Revenue per User. The Dirichlet distri...
Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
http://ewulczyn.github.io/blog
Data Scientist @ WMF. AB Testing and the Importance of Independent Observations. Statistical tests commonly used for AB testing, like the two-sample z-test, rely on the assumption that the experimental observations (i.e. samples) are independent. If this assumption is not met, the test becomes unreliable in the sense that it may not. What if AB Testing is like Science . and most results are false? Beautifully Bayesian - How to do AB Testing with Discrete Rewards? Wikipedia Clickstream - Getting Started.
What if AB Testing is like Science ... and most results are false? – Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
http://ewulczyn.github.io/what_if_ab_testing_is_like_science
Data Scientist @ WMF. What if AB Testing is like Science . and most results are false? In Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. Most applications of AB testing involve running multiple repeated experiments in order to optimize a metric. At each iteration, we test a hypothesis: Does the new design perform better than the control? Is it possible, that if the chances of generating a better new design are slim, that we adopt bad designs more often than we adopt good designs? Tt ind solve power.
AB Testing and the Importance of Independent Observations – Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
http://ewulczyn.github.io/ab_testing_and_independence
Data Scientist @ WMF. AB Testing and the Importance of Independent Observations. A simple model of an online AB test. After defining (Beta A ), (Beta B ), (Beta exit ) and choosing a number of users (N ) to include in the experiment, we can run controlled simulations of AB tests and explore how violations in independence assumptions impact the reliability of the test results. Class for (Beta A ), (Beta B ) and (Beta {exit} ). We will use the. Method takes in a user and assigns them a donation and exit pr...
How Naive AB Testing Goes Wrong and How to Fix It – Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
http://ewulczyn.github.io/How_Naive_AB_Testing_Goes_Wrong
Data Scientist @ WMF. How Naive AB Testing Goes Wrong and How to Fix It. Although classical hypothesis tests are probably still the most widespread technique for online A/B tests, they are not the most appropriate. In this post, I will describe the shortcomings of hypothesis testing for web optimization and propose a method of repeated Bayesian A/B testing to address them. Hypothesis testing was designed for situations in which:. 2) the sample size is predetermined or fixed in advance. Before taking the ...
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Ewa Wachowicz - Ewulaki
Czyli przytulaki Ewy Wachowicz. Środa, 11 stycznia 2017. Odwzorowania 2016: kolorowa dżdżownica. Dżdżownica jaka jest każdy widzi:. A może jednak nie? Jak nie widać, to czas zabrać się za zabawę w korekcję kolorów i inne takie ;). Teraz już lepiej prawda? Dżdżownica jak się patrzy ;). A jeszcze lepiej jak wyjdzie z obrazka:. Tylko trzeba ją pilnować. Chociaż ma krótkie i małe nóżki doskonale się wspina. I kiedy nikt nie patrzy potrafi uciec na korytarz. Udostępnij w usłudze Twitter. Gdyby ktoś mnie zapyt...
Projects – Ellery Wulczyn – Data Scientist @ WMF
Data Scientist @ WMF. A collection of machine learning models for detecting personal attacks and aggression in discussion comments. We are using the models to study the prevalence and impact of toxic comments on Wikipedia, as well as encourage the development of new moderation tools. In collaboration with Google Jigsaw. This is work in progress. System for recommending articles for translation between Wikipedias. Nominated for best paper. A collection of blog posts containing practical advice on AB testi...
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