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Fooled by Robustness | a perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries

G'day: This blog provides supplementary material for, and commentary on, the book entitled Fooled by Robustness: a perspective from the land of the Black Swan that I plan to publish in 2012. In this book I show and illustrate that risk analysts/scholars can be easily fooled by ... robustness against severe uncertainty. The book provides…

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Fooled by Robustness | a perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries | fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com Reviews
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G'day: This blog provides supplementary material for, and commentary on, the book entitled Fooled by Robustness: a perspective from the land of the Black Swan that I plan to publish in 2012. In this book I show and illustrate that risk analysts/scholars can be easily fooled by ... robustness against severe uncertainty. The book provides…
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Fooled by Robustness | a perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries | fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com Reviews

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com

G'day: This blog provides supplementary material for, and commentary on, the book entitled Fooled by Robustness: a perspective from the land of the Black Swan that I plan to publish in 2012. In this book I show and illustrate that risk analysts/scholars can be easily fooled by ... robustness against severe uncertainty. The book provides…

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1

Posts | Fooled by Robustness

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com/help/posts

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. G’day, and welcome to the Fooled by Robustness. If this is your first visit to the blog, I suggest that you read the HELP. Just in case … note that you can type math expressions on this blog using. For instance, you can easily type this. You may wish to read on Latex support. I am looking forward to hearing from you! The Land of the Black Swan and No Worries! Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Photo by Ben Twist.

2

Likelihood-free | Fooled by Robustness

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com/topics/likelihood-free

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. A likelihood-free quantification of uncertainty is a quantification of uncertainty, say in the true value of some object. That does not provide any information on the likelihood that the true of. Take any particular value in. Or that an element in. Is more/less likely than another element in. For instance, consider this:. What is the likelihood that the bar is in box C? Of course, we can assume. Create a ...

3

Posts | Fooled by Robustness

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com/posts

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. The main objective of this blog is to post here short “essays” on topics related to the main topic of my book Fooled by Robustness. Which is robust decision-making un the face of severe uncertainty. I shall, of course, respond to comments on these posts. I am particularly interested in discussing technical and conceptual issues related to this topic. I am looking forward to hearing from you!

4

Maximin | Fooled by Robustness

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com/topics/maximin

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. 8216;s (1902-1950) Maximin model (circa 1940) is one of the most popular tools for dealing with severe uncertainty. Informally, it can be stated as follows:. Rank decisions according to their worst-case. Outcome. Hence, select the decision whose worst-case outcome is the best. More formally, in the context of constrained optimization problems. It can be stated as follows:. Set of all available decisions.

5

Decision Tables | Fooled by Robustness

https://fooledbyrobustness.wordpress.com/topics/decision-table

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. A decision table is a simple format used in classical decision theory to present simple decision-making problems under uncertainty. The rows of such a table represent the decisions (actions) available to the decision maker (DM) and the columns represent the states of the world. That is states of Nature. No omelet and five good eggs destroyed. Six-egg omelet and a saucer to wash.

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Fooled by Robustness | a perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries

A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. Been fooled by … robustness, lately? This blog provides supplementary material for, and commentary on, the book entitled Fooled by Robustness. A perspective from the land of the Black Swan. That I plan to publish in 2012. In this book I show and illustrate that risk analysts/scholars can be easily fooled by … robustness against severe uncertainty. The Land of the Black Swan and No Worries!

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