not-normal-consulting.co.uk
Not Normal Consulting: October 2012
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2012_10_01_archive.html
Monday, 29 October 2012. Quantitative finance and Medical charlatanism. PSY headquarters moved to Cancun, Mexico this week, giving me some time to post a blog article on one of my favourite subjects: the abuse of "science" in quantitative finance (see for example the article on OpRisk last month. This was triggered by an op-ed piece on ft.com: " There is life in this ‘investable’ rally. Great Not exactly F = ma. OK, so I'm being pedantic, the definition is obviously short-hand, clearly there is some ackn...
not-normal-consulting.co.uk
Not Normal Consulting: Risk Perception, Management Bias and the Use Test
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2014/01/risk-perception-management-bias-and-use.html
Friday, 3 January 2014. Risk Perception, Management Bias and the Use Test. The Infinite Monkey Cage. Podcast recently covered risk. In the general “risk of dying / epidemic / explosion” sense, as opposed to the financial / probabilistic sense that most readers work with. As usual with TIMC the discussion was pretty broad. The force of mortality got a look in, there was some chat about career risk. And they spent a while talking about the concept of a “micromort”. Now the problem with this divergence betw...
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Not Normal Consulting: Total Surveillance, the NSA and the problem of False Positives
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2013/06/total-surveillance-nsa-and-problem-of.html
Friday, 14 June 2013. Total Surveillance, the NSA and the problem of False Positives. Total Surveillance, Prism, the NSA and the problem of false positives. Total Surveillance, Prism, the NSA and the problem of false positives. This is just a quick one and pretty off topic from my usual posts, but it was inspired by hearing statments like “If youre innocent you have nothing to hide” once too often. Kind of like that, only much more scary. I dont have space here for a crash course in Bayesian probability,...
not-normal-consulting.co.uk
Not Normal Consulting: PSY Ltd Partner - NAG
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/p/psy-ltd-partner-nag_13.html
PSY Ltd Partner - NAG. PSY Ltd is proud to partner with the Numerical Algorithms Group (NAG). From multicore workstations to the latest supercomputers, NAG's robust software development products, parallel software engineering services, independent technology consulting and HPC training can support your modelling and computing needs. Read our joint article. On ways to fix "broken" correlation matrices. Find out more about products and services from NAG. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Phone: 44 787 29 28 710.
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Not Normal Consulting: September 2013
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2013_09_01_archive.html
Thursday, 26 September 2013. Article on Correlation Matrices. Stephen Langdell of NAG. And myself recently collaborated on an article in The Actuary magazine, where we discussed some issues that frequently crop up when dealing with correlation matrices. You can read the article here. Or a slightly longer version on NAG's site here. Thursday, 12 September 2013. The Problem with Percentiles. The Problem with Percentiles. Lets generate samples from a simple frequency-severity model like one we might us for ...
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Not Normal Consulting: Normal Distribution
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2013/11/normal-distribution.html
Wednesday, 13 November 2013. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). PSY Ltd is proud to partner with the Numerical Algorithms Group. Phil Joubert is a consultant specialising in insurance and quantitative risk. He lives in Hong Kong where he works for a toptier strategic consultancy, and he blogs here in a personal capacity. Phone: 44 787 29 28 710. 44 787 29 28 710. Youll need Skype Credit. View my complete profile. Hierarchical Clustering Nearest Neighbors Algorithm in R.
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Not Normal Consulting: January 2013
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2013_01_01_archive.html
Wednesday, 30 January 2013. Model Validation - I wouldn't have started from here if I were you. Based on conversations with clients and other consultants, it seems that model validation is on everyone's minds, at least to the extent that anyone is still thinking about Solvency 2 and IMAP at all. This prompted me to write a couple of bullet points:. On the other hand, validation should be a collaborative process. This isn't a chance to show how smart you are by picking holes in someone else's work....
not-normal-consulting.co.uk
Not Normal Consulting: November 2013
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2013_11_01_archive.html
Wednesday, 13 November 2013. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). PSY Ltd is proud to partner with the Numerical Algorithms Group. Phil Joubert is a consultant specialising in insurance and quantitative risk. He lives in Hong Kong where he works for a toptier strategic consultancy, and he blogs here in a personal capacity. Phone: 44 787 29 28 710. 44 787 29 28 710. Youll need Skype Credit. View my complete profile. Hierarchical Clustering Nearest Neighbors Algorithm in R.
not-normal-consulting.co.uk
Not Normal Consulting: January 2014
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2014_01_01_archive.html
Sunday, 19 January 2014. The NSA and False Positives - evidence. Occasionally I get to utter the four most satisfying words in the English language: I told you so. Some not so random surfing led me to an article entitled Secret without Reason and Costly without Accomplishment: Questioning the National Security Agency’s Metadata Program. I was particularly pleased to read the first two paragraphs of page 13, which describe the FBI's response to the "leads" which the NSA provides to them:. Although a lot o...
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Not Normal Consulting: March 2014
http://www.not-normal-consulting.co.uk/2014_03_01_archive.html
Tuesday, 18 March 2014. F# interfacing with R using SmithWilsonYieldCurve. My friend and intermittent colleague Phil Brooks over at F# for Actuaries ( http:/ fsharpactuary.blogspot.co.uk/. Is using my SmithWilsonYieldCurve. Package to demonstrate how to call R from F#. This is a language which has been on my radar for a while, but which I haven't had the time to get into. I'll be following Phil's blog closely from now on, check out the post in question here. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). 44 787 29 28 710.