politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Seventh projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/seventh-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Thursday, October 9, 2008. For today's update. We are using the following polls:. Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.93 weight). EKOS - Oct 6-8 (1.00 weight). Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.14 weight). Nanos Research - Oct 6-8 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). Harris-Decima -Oct 5-8 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight). National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection). CPC 133 ( 9, 3), Lib 83 (-20, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 39 ( 10, -3), Ind 3 ( 2, n/c), Grn 1 ( 1, 1).
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Sixth projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/sixth-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Wednesday, October 8, 2008. There is a slight revision to the projection method starting today and going forward. In ridings were a party is not fielding a candidate; rather than ignore the polling fluctuations for the non-contesting party, they will be distributed in the same way that party's 2006 votes were distributed. With that business out of the way, on to today's update. We are using the following polls:. Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (1.00 weight). CPC 28 (n/c, n/c). CPC 23 (...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Fourth projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/fourth-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Monday, October 6, 2008. For today's update, we are using the following polls:. Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (0.79 weight). EKOS - Oct 3-5 (1.00 weight). Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.57 weight). Nanos Research - Oct 3-5 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.21 weight). Harris-Decima -Oct 2-5 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight). National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection). CPC 48 ( 8, -9), Lib 39 (-15, 7), NDP 19 ( 7, 2).
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Ridings to watch
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/ridings-to-watch.html
Painting a Political Picture. Tuesday, October 14, 2008. S ridings to watch for the 2008 federal election. Polls are closed in the Atlantic and I am watching the returns. I'll follow the Election Act. And not let you in on the secrets, but in the mean time, here are the seats that my projections showed within 5 points or "the ridings to watch" (parties listed in the order the projection model shows them placing):. St John's East: NDP vs. Lib. Central Nova: NDP vs. Grn. Honoré-Mercier: CPC vs. BQ. Newton-...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Second projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/second-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Saturday, October 4, 2008. For today's update, we are using the following polls:. Angus Reid - Sep 24-25 (0.07 weight). EKOS - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight). Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (1.00 weight). Nanos Research - Sep 30-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). Strategic Counsel - Sep 28-29 [ON, QC only] (0.64 weight). Harris-Decima -Sep 29-Oct 2 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight). National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection). In Alberta, the Tories re-soli...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: In Quotes: The conflicting arguments of Jim Flaherty and the Tories
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/in-quotes-conflicting-arguments-of.html
Painting a Political Picture. Thursday, October 9, 2008. In Quotes: The conflicting arguments of Jim Flaherty and the Tories. Jim Flaherty on Corporate Welfare. I don't believe in corporate welfare or in propping up failing companies," he said, rejecting any sort of direct industrial aid or investment as a response to mill closures in New Brunswick. December 13th, 2007]. The Toronto Globe and Mail. October 7, 2008]. Jim Flaherty on Bailing out Banks. The Toronto Globe and Mail. October 9, 2008]. The plan...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Fifth projection (or yesterday's numbers, today)
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/fifth-projection-or-yesterdays-numbers.html
Painting a Political Picture. Wednesday, October 8, 2008. Fifth projection (or yesterday's numbers, today). Due to technical difficulties, I didn't get yesterday's update posted. Here it is this morning, with another to follow this evening with today's polls. For this projection, I used the following polls:. Angus Reid - Oct 2-3 (0.64 weight). EKOS - Oct 4-6 (1.00 weight). Ipsos-Reid - Sep 30-Oct 2 (0.43 weight). Nanos Research - Oct 4-6 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). CPC 28 (n/c, n/c). North (change ...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Eighth projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/eighth-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Friday, October 10, 2008. For today's update. We are using the following polls:. Angus Reid - Oct 6-7 (0.79 weight). EKOS - Oct 7-9 (1.00 weight). Nanos Research - Oct 7-9 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). Harris-Decima -Oct 6-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight). National results (change vs. 2006, change vs. last projection). CPC 133 ( 9, n/c), Lib 82 (-21, -1), BQ 49 (-2, n/c), NDP 41 ( 12, 2), Ind 3 ( 2, n/c), Grn 0 (n/c, -1). CPC 28 (n/c, n/c). Tom Mulcair has pulled a...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Final projection
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/final-projection.html
Painting a Political Picture. Monday, October 13, 2008. After a little break for Thanksgiving weekend, here is the final update based on 7 new polls. Angus Reid - Oct 8-10 (0.71 weight). EKOS - Oct 10-12 (1.00 weight). Ipsos-Reid - Oct 7-9 (0.57 weight). Nanos Research - Oct 10-12 [ON, QC, Atl only] (1.00 weight). Strategic Counsel - Oct 10-11 [ON, QC only] (0.93 weight). Harris-Decima -Oct 9-12 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.93 weight). Segma - Oct 5-9 [ON, QC, Atl, BC only] (0.43 weight). That the NDP will ...
politicalpicture.blogspot.com
Painting a Political Picture: Projections coming tomorrow
http://politicalpicture.blogspot.com/2008/10/projections-coming-tomorrow.html
Painting a Political Picture. Thursday, October 2, 2008. Oct 8, 2008. I have completed the projection model and tested it - it's working! I hope you'll enjoy the results (which I'll update through the election). Here is the formula, this can be tweaked if it proves way out in left field but so far it seems to work in the testing. First, I take the 2006 results and apply the following filters as necessary:. For first time incumbents:. If they held the seat for their own party: no adjustment. I weighted vo...