commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: September 2007
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html
Tuesday, September 25, 2007. Crude Oil Moving Lower - But Don't Jump In Yet. September 25, 2007. As predicted last week, Nov. Crude Oil has begun a pull-back from record highs. But don't jump in yet. We like the Nov. 75 puts. They're trading at .67 now ($670), but they expire. I expect the OJ market to take a quick breather and probably settle back to the 1.28 area for the weekend. For prices to pop through the 1.30 area and get into the money for the 1.40 calls (which expire in just over...Futures and o...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: January 2008
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008. High-Flyers of 2007 May See Big Drops in '08. January 15, 2007. Today we implemented a bear put spread on the March contract, buying an 88 put and selling an 84 put for a net debit of $1,050. Our greatest profit level will come in between $88 and $85. Our plan would be to sell the 88 on a bounce and let the 85 either expire worthless on Feb. 14 or buy it back if we think it will move back against us. What Will Be Up In 2008? Rates (the Dollar will be less attractive for buyers ...
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Commodities & Futures: March 2008
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2008_03_01_archive.html
Saturday, March 1, 2008. Here’s an update on the trades we’ve been looking at since the letter I sent you two weeks ago. Below is a copy of the letter with updated charts to show how the trades progressed. My new comments are in italics. Hope you find this interesting. Here are also a few of the markets on our “radar screen” that we are monitoring for either current trades or ones we are waiting to jump into:. D resistance in the 140 price range, and the options expire on April 18, so we have time for th...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: Three Top-Heavy Markets Looking Ripe for Collapse
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007/10/three-top-heavy-markets-looking-ripe.html
Tuesday, October 16, 2007. Three Top-Heavy Markets Looking Ripe for Collapse. October 16, 2007. The crude oil market has still been on a tear, and from what we see it is largely fueled by the hedge funds. Chances of a hurricane hitting the Gulf area remains slim, and we are past the peak driving season and pre-cold weather, so without a catalyst for prices to keep soaring we are going to continue to predict a beat-down for this market. Soybeans Look Ready for Dip. The soybean market, like most of the gra...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: OJ Trade Triggered; Storms Brewing in Gulf & Atlantic
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007/09/oj-trade-triggered-storms-brewing-in.html
Thursday, September 13, 2007. OJ Trade Triggered; Storms Brewing in Gulf and Atlantic. September 13, 2007. We finally pulled the trigger on the Nov. OJ calls, picking up some 140 strikes for 1.95 each (a real crappy fill that didn't get executed until the end of the day - even us brokers can get crappy fills). Looking at the chart from the NOAA. TD #8 looks like it could make a direct line for Florida. Or it could veer off to the north, south, or dipsy. But, the threat is there, so as traders we want to.
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: Irrational Crude Oil
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007/09/irrational-crude-oil.html
Wednesday, September 19, 2007. September 18, 2007. The crude oil market is once again acting irrationally. Goldman Sachs came out with a piece saying crude could hit the $85 to $100 per barrel point very soon. That alone is usually cause for us to take the opposite side and short this market. A 50% move down from today's high ($81.11) to August's low would place the Nov. crude oil contract in the $75 range. A Nov. put option with a $75 strike closed today at .83, or $830. If crude...Interest rates fallin...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: Crude Oil Moving Lower - But Don't Jump In Yet
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007/09/crude-oil-moving-lower-but-dont-jump-in.html
Tuesday, September 25, 2007. Crude Oil Moving Lower - But Don't Jump In Yet. September 25, 2007. As predicted last week, Nov. Crude Oil has begun a pull-back from record highs. But don't jump in yet. We like the Nov. 75 puts. They're trading at .67 now ($670), but they expire. I expect the OJ market to take a quick breather and probably settle back to the 1.28 area for the weekend. For prices to pop through the 1.30 area and get into the money for the 1.40 calls (which expire in just over...Futures and o...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: October 2007
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007_10_01_archive.html
Tuesday, October 16, 2007. Three Top-Heavy Markets Looking Ripe for Collapse. October 16, 2007. The crude oil market has still been on a tear, and from what we see it is largely fueled by the hedge funds. Chances of a hurricane hitting the Gulf area remains slim, and we are past the peak driving season and pre-cold weather, so without a catalyst for prices to keep soaring we are going to continue to predict a beat-down for this market. Soybeans Look Ready for Dip. The soybean market, like most of the gra...
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: August 2007
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007_08_01_archive.html
Monday, August 13, 2007. Crude Oil Trade Complete; Storm Brewing for OJ? August 13, 2007. We got stopped out of the second half of our Oct. Crude Oil 70 put options today when a price spike hit our stop at $1.50 for a profit of about $500. Overall we grossed about $1,300 on two contracts that cost us about $2,000. Tropical Storm Watch for OJ. At the risk of sounding morbid, we finally got a tropical depression, but it's still too early to tell if it will of risk to Florida and its orange juice crop.
commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com
Commodities & Futures: Get Ready to Move on Crude Oil
http://commoditiesfutures.blogspot.com/2007/10/get-ready-to-move-on-crude-oil.html
Tuesday, October 2, 2007. Get Ready to Move on Crude Oil. October 2, 2007. Grains Set for Tumble? Wheat, corn, beans and oats all closed at or close-to limit down today. Some was profit taking off the incredible highs these markets have been seeing (in the case of wheat and soybeans), and a possible glut in supply in the case of corn. With corn dropping 20-cents today, you would be doing the money dance for sure! Why are we bearish on corn? Big supplies and a higher yield as harvest continues throughout ...