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Options - The Naked Truth | optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com Reviews
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Options In The Real World
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Options - The Naked Truth: Directional Trading With Options Pt1
http://optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com/2012/09/directional-trading-with-options-pt1.html
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Sunday, September 16, 2012. Directional Trading With Options Pt1. There are several philosophies used in options trading; premium collection, volatility trading etc. But the one I want to focus on for a while is straight out directional trading. Yet again there are several means to trade directionally, from straight out option buys, to vertical spreads, to just about any other spread you can think of. An examination of each type of trading is beyond t...
Options - The Naked Truth: A Look At Covered Calls - April 11 Update
http://optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com/2012/04/look-at-covered-calls-april-11-update.html
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Tuesday, April 10, 2012. A Look At Covered Calls - April 11 Update. This is an update of my A Look at Covered Calls - The Naked Truth. Project. A hypothetical portfolio of systematic covered call writing (AKA synthetic naked put writing) with a non-margin account. If indeed the market does get some support here and we get a bounce going into expiry, those extra deltas are going to help the overall position. On the other hand if the market steps of...
Options - The Naked Truth: March 2012
http://optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com/2012_03_01_archive.html
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Thursday, March 29, 2012. 80% Percent of Options Expire Worthless? Let's look at the actual figures according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange:. About 10% of options are exercised during each cycle. That means the other 90% must expire worthless, right? In fact over 60% of all options are traded out in the marketplace before expiry. These could be in, out or at the money. That leaves approximately 30% of options expire that expire worthless.
Options - The Naked Truth: Directional Trading With Options Pt2
http://optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com/2012/11/directional-trading-with-options-pt2.html
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Saturday, November 10, 2012. Directional Trading With Options Pt2. I m quite happy to stand to be corrected on this and I haven't done a scholarly thesis on this, but this matches the consensus of many other experienced option traders. Firstly, lets look at the advantages and disadvantages of options versus stocks as I see it, always working with the assumption that an equal number of deltas is used, as described in Part 1. Although the maximum loss o...
Options - The Naked Truth: Accuracy Of Market Estimates of Volatility
http://optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com/2012/04/accuracy-of-market-estimates-of.html
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Wednesday, April 18, 2012. Accuracy Of Market Estimates of Volatility. In a couple of recent posts viz, Is It Better To Buy Or Sell Options? And Buy/Sell Musings and Volatility. I've been looking at the trader's bias of being a either a buyer or seller of options, or at least being nett short or long gamma. Some writers suggest a comparison to historical volatility, but I wrote in Buy/Sell Musings and Volatility. Historical volatility is definitive ho...
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Sigma Options: November 2009
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. November Soothsaying. Or Not. As October trading is over it's time to look forward to the next month with reference to our new monthly pivots now set in stone, with the last trading day in October adding a fair bit of interest to the equation. The monthly pivots have been very influential on the resistance side of the equation, but with scarcely any relevance at all on the support side. This is fairly expected in a stong uptrend. But those low readings can and do drag on.
Sigma Options: January 2012
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2012_01_01_archive.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. Blogging At A New Space. I have recommenced blogging and for various reasons have started a new blog called. Options - The Naked Truth. Visit me there at optionsthenakedtruth.blogspot.com. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Options - The Naked Truth. VIX based trading - making profits on the "Fear Index"? The Essentials of Trading. Don Fishback's Market Update. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. Subscribe in a reader. Blogging At A New Space. Credit Spread Myths Part 1.
Sigma Options: Whither Gold?
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/10/whither-gold.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. Although gold option volatility has settled into what looks like a base of around 20%, it is still usefully above realized vols at around 15-16%. useful depending which side of the trade your on and presuming realized vols don't startle us all into a dither. Aside from what has become the normal 4 or 5 points premium, there doesn't seem to be a lot of buying interest in gold options (specifically calls), despite the gold-bug's scaremongering and ramping. So, whither gold?
Sigma Options: Guru S&P500 Prognostications
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/10/guru-s-prognostications.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. In the absence of anything notable to report re my current obsession with gold, I'll have a look today at my guru call from Sept 30. (N.B. all the guru stuff is tongue in cheek and a bit of self derogation.) as you will recall I Went Out On A Limb. And called a medium term top on the S&P500. The 20day MA of the put call ratio I keep posting in the hope someone takes notice, is still highlighting extreme complacency. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Subscribe in a reader.
Sigma Options: Going Out On A Limb
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/09/going-out-on-limb.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. Going Out On A Limb. No, I'm not embarking on a mission of McLean-esque spiritual discovery, but I am taking the unusual step of publicly calling a medium term top on stocks. The $64,000 question these days is - what constitutes a decent retracement? Dip buyers apparently are cashed up and are all over any divot, never mind actual dips. NB For amusement value only, there is no money riding on this. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Don Fishback's Market Update. VIX base...
Sigma Options: The Limb I Went Out On Is Cracking Already
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/09/limb-i-went-out-on-is-cracking-already.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. The Limb I Went Out On Is Cracking Already. Amazing market we're in at this time. There is dip buying, then there is dip buying. Then again maybe not. at 15:15 we are selling off again. September 30, 2009 at 8:15 PM. Im loathe to comment until the close lest my ass gets whipsawed again. lol. But no doubt Ill have to update this post. September 30, 2009 at 8:33 PM. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Don Fishback's Market Update. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
Sigma Options: (VI)X Marks the Top?
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/10/vix-marks-top.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. VI)X Marks the Top? So the S&P500 just about touches the high of the year from last month and slowly backs away. At this point I'm not going to remind you of my top call from September 30, just in case it blows straight through to new highs and trashes my reputation as market soothsayer and guru. LOL. The point of focus for me is now VIX. The finer points are expertly covered by Adam Warner. The next question is "can technical analysis be used on the VIX? I say why not?
Sigma Options: Selecting Condor Strikes - A Study
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/10/selecting-condor-strikes-study.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. Selecting Condor Strikes - A Study. As I have outlined in another thread, people who trade iron condors are usually taught to select short strikes at one standard deviation from the current price action. As I am developing a conversation elsewhere, I think extrapolating option volatility to "monthized" levels is not optimal. I'll be using historic volatility, just so it can be automated. Note that this does not represent any trades I may be doing, it is just an exercise.
Sigma Options: VIX Stirring From its (Relative) Slumber
http://sigmaoptions.blogspot.com/2009/10/vix-stirring-from-its-relative-slumber.html
One Sigma Short Of A Black Swan. VIX Stirring From its (Relative) Slumber. Do I detect just a modicum of concern of this market via the VIX? Yes we are off a few points today and this invariably causes at least a bit of a rally in the VIX. Nothing startling there. But watching VIX over the last few days I was beginning to wonder whether they were going to plough volatilities into the mid teens, come what may. Cept when I nail it right on the day. That is unquestionably skill. There is a school of thought...
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Options - The Naked Truth
Options - The Naked Truth. Options In The Real World. Saturday, November 10, 2012. Directional Trading With Options Pt2. I m quite happy to stand to be corrected on this and I haven't done a scholarly thesis on this, but this matches the consensus of many other experienced option traders. Firstly, lets look at the advantages and disadvantages of options versus stocks as I see it, always working with the assumption that an equal number of deltas is used, as described in Part 1. Although the maximum loss o...
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