losimprevisibles.blogspot.com
Those Unpredictable: 2016美國總統大選:三種不同的預測方式
http://losimprevisibles.blogspot.com/2016/10/2016.html
Discover the beauty in the world through lens of Economics and Finance, with small touches in Sports. Wednesday, October 26, 2016. 圖片來源:http:/ projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. 當全世界都在關注這次的美國總統大選,有各種不同的預測模式。這次,有甚麼不同? 圖片來源:http:/ projects.fivethirtyeight.com/. 第一個介紹的預測,也是開頭的圖片,來自於以美國538個選舉人票為名的網站: Fivethirtyeight.com. 12290;現任主編,也是創辦人Nate Silver過去的資歷就是以統計數據出發,分析棒球與美國政治的各項民意調查。遇上總統大選統計,他們當然不會缺席。 上,提供讀者三項不同的選則。這三項選擇各為三種不同的統計模型。而三種模型的差異,主要來自於他們選取的資料差異。 很多預測網站,都將各州視作為同樣的個體,因此他...此外,"...
whyteablog.wordpress.com
whyteablog | whyteablog
https://whyteablog.wordpress.com/author/whyteablog
Demography: How to Make America White Again. November 19, 2016. January 23, 2017. At first glance our demographic future doesn’t look good. Here’s a hopeful trend:. Conservatives breed way more than liberals do. The reasons for this must be manifold. Perhaps it’s because liberal women are ugly. Maybe it’s because population density has a negative association with fertility. Maybe it’s because liberal women are ugly. It could be because liberals are less likely to get married. As an estimate for the propo...
primarymodel.wordpress.com
Primary Model | Forecasting Elections – One State at a Time | Page 2
https://primarymodel.wordpress.com/page/2
Forecasting Elections – One State at a Time. New York Times Primary and General Caucus Results in 2008. January 3, 2012. New York Times Primary Results Reference and Link. Forecasting Presidential Elections: The Primary Model 2008. January 2, 2012 1 Comment. Primary Model 2008 Link. HuffPost/Pollster.com – Norpoth: New Hampshire’s Crystal Ball in 2008. January 1, 2012. Norpoth: New Hampshire's Crystal Ball in 2008. Norpoth: New Hampshire’s Crystal Ball in 2008. January 1, 2012. Prof Norpoth is interviewe...
whyteablog.wordpress.com
The Catastrophic Failure of the Left | whyteablog
https://whyteablog.wordpress.com/2016/11/13/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-left
The Catastrophic Failure of the Left. November 13, 2016. November 21, 2016. They had every advantage: the media, the education system, the megadonors, the political machines, and even many Republicans like John McCain and Paul Ryan. You could attribute it to popular support on Trump’s part, but that’s wrong. His overall voter turnout wasn’t that much larger than Romney’s, and he also didn’t crush Hillary through sheer numbers since the popular vote was effectively a tie. Nominating Hillary caused 1.2...
whyteablog.wordpress.com
November | 2016 | whyteablog
https://whyteablog.wordpress.com/2016/11
Demography: How to Make America White Again. November 19, 2016. January 23, 2017. At first glance our demographic future doesn’t look good. Here’s a hopeful trend:. Conservatives breed way more than liberals do. The reasons for this must be manifold. Perhaps it’s because liberal women are ugly. Maybe it’s because population density has a negative association with fertility. Maybe it’s because liberal women are ugly. It could be because liberals are less likely to get married. As an estimate for the propo...