andrewhalterman.com
The Good Judgement Project and Bayes’ Calculator – Andrew Halterman
https://andrewhalterman.com/2014/04/02/good-judgement-project-and-bayes/comment-page-1
Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. April 2, 2014.
blog.inklingmarkets.com
Inkling Markets Blog: A little "less" in "relentless"
http://blog.inklingmarkets.com/2014/01/a-little-less-in-relentless.html
Crowdsourced forecasting using prediction markets. We've lived to tell the tale. Tuesday, January 21, 2014. A little "less" in "relentless". As someone running a small company with a handful of employees and several contractors, I've had to learn the limits of how hard I can push people and what I can ask them to do. I suspect other founders or managers in larger companies could stand to examine this aspect of their leadership style as well. Unfortunately, this is where things tend to get dangerous.
blog.geomblog.org
The Geomblog: 12/01/2014 - 01/01/2015
http://blog.geomblog.org/2014_12_01_archive.html
Ruminations on computational geometry, algorithms, theoretical computer science and life. The Job Search: A series of posts. Clustering: A conceptual approach. Thursday, December 11, 2014. Accountability in data mining. For a while now, I've been thinking about the endgame in data mining. Or more precisely, about a world where everything is being mined for all kinds of patterns, and the contours of our life are shaped by the patterns learnt about us. How can I trust the patterns being discovered? And I a...
kadsci.com
Welcome to KaDSci
http://www.kadsci.com/index.html
Basic and Applied Research. KaDSci, LLC is a small, veteran owned Analytics boutique that was founded in 2008 with the goal of finding and providing solutions to the most vexing decision related research, technology, and analysis challenges facing the nation and leading industries'. Toward that end KaDSci has assembled a small highly skilled team. KaDSci partners and collaborators. Analytics is about providing insight. Models, Data, and computers are tools, not the goal. Analytics is a service business.
readplaintext.com
Using SciCast to find answers in the Bitcoin block size debate
https://readplaintext.com/using-scicast-to-find-answers-in-the-bitcoin-block-size-debate-46764cb50e0b
Sign in / Sign up. Never miss a story from Plain Text. When you sign up for Medium. Learn more. Never miss a story from Plain Text. Econ, books, liberty, psychology, sexuality, absurdity. oh yeah and Bitcoin. posting up at @mercatus and writing at @umlautmag. May 26, 2015. Using SciCast to find answers in the Bitcoin block size debate. A combinatorial prediction market can help to reveal early answers to complicated questions. There are now no easy answers. The many exceptional minds. Participating in th...
timvangelder.com
Risk | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/risk
Archive for the ‘Risk’ Category. Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting. On March 31, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;I come not to praise forecasters but to bury them.” With these unsubtle words, Barry Ritholz opens an entertaining piece. Or the research by Philip Tetlock showing that geopolitical experts do scarcely better than random, and worse than the simplest statistical methods. More recent research on a range of fronts – notably, by the Good Judgement Project. There can be forecasting skill;. Forecasting i...
timvangelder.com
Prediction | Tim van Gelder
https://timvangelder.com/category/prediction
Archive for the ‘Prediction’ Category. On June 24, 2015 1 Comment. 8220;As soon as you start thinking probabilities, all kinds of things change. You’ll prepare for risks you disregarded before. You’ll listen to people you disagreed with before. You won’t be surprised when a recession or a bear market that no one predicted occurs. All of this makes you better at handling and navigating the future — which is the point of forecasting in the first place.”. See also rba.tips. Read Full Post ». It shows Treasu...
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