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Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%. If they do...

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Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%. If they do...

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5 indianapolis colts 22%

6 minnesota vikings 11%

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9 arizona cardinals 4%

10 baltimore ravens 3%

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Sports Statistician | sportsstatistician.blogspot.com Reviews

https://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com

Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%. If they do...

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sportsstatistician.blogspot.com

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Sports Statistician: November 2009

http://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html

Tuesday, November 17, 2009. First, apologies for taking so long to make a second post. A bunch of you have needled me for this, and all I can say is that I have a deadline for Monday that I've been trying to meet. Anyway, here's a Thanksgiving post about a coach who clearly made a turkey of a decision. Let's be generous and say that the fake punt had a 25% chance of succeeding (it was 22 yards! If they get a first down, let's say they get 30 yards. Yale then has an 86% of winning the game. Yale's probabi...

2

Sports Statistician: Actually crazy decisions

http://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com/2009/11/actually-crazy-decisions.html

Tuesday, November 17, 2009. First, apologies for taking so long to make a second post. A bunch of you have needled me for this, and all I can say is that I have a deadline for Monday that I've been trying to meet. Anyway, here's a Thanksgiving post about a coach who clearly made a turkey of a decision. Let's be generous and say that the fake punt had a 25% chance of succeeding (it was 22 yards! If they get a first down, let's say they get 30 yards. Yale then has an 86% of winning the game. Yale's probabi...

3

Sports Statistician: Super Bowl Probabilities

http://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com/2010/01/sports-betting.html

Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%.

4

Sports Statistician: January 2010

http://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html

Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%.

5

Sports Statistician: Patriots-Colts and Crazy Decisions

http://sportsstatistician.blogspot.com/2009/11/as-i-was-watching-patriots-colts-game.html

Monday, November 16, 2009. Patriots-Colts and Crazy Decisions. As I was watching the Patriots-Colts game last night, I thought - like all of America except Deion Sanders, it seems - that the Patriots should punt. Checking out the probabilities of winning makes it pretty clear, though, that Belichick's decision was actually correct or at least basically a break-even proposition. So why do people instantly react that this was a crazy decision? For more on this point). Clearly our instant reactions to these...

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Sports Statistician

Wednesday, January 6, 2010. Because Vegas tilts the odds a little bit towards teams (like Dallas) that they know will be overbet and because of the sizable commission that they take, a somewhat better place to find the real chances for each of the teams winning the Super Bowl is on a betting exchange, which is a pure market where people take either side of the bet. Here are the current probabilities of winning the Super Bowl as I estimate them from the odds on Betfair. New Orleans Saints: 17%. If they do...

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