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The Success Equation Simulations. A website for The Success Equation, a book by Michael J. Mauboussin from Harvard Business Review Press. Check out the various simulations, game and other content below. Buy the book on Amazon. Or Barnes and Noble. If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? A slightly revised version of the classic model. Set skill and luck values then see how the season plays out. Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge.

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The Success Equation Simulations. A website for The Success Equation, a book by Michael J. Mauboussin from Harvard Business Review Press. Check out the various simulations, game and other content below. Buy the book on Amazon. Or Barnes and Noble. If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? A slightly revised version of the classic model. Set skill and luck values then see how the season plays out. Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge.

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1 michael mauboussin

2 simulations

3 polya urn model

4 tennis

5 distribution model

6 games

7 colonel blotto

8 mind reader

9 other content

10 bibliography

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Home | success-equation.com Reviews

https://success-equation.com

The Success Equation Simulations. A website for The Success Equation, a book by Michael J. Mauboussin from Harvard Business Review Press. Check out the various simulations, game and other content below. Buy the book on Amazon. Or Barnes and Noble. If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? A slightly revised version of the classic model. Set skill and luck values then see how the season plays out. Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge.

SUBDOMAINS

confidence.success-equation.com

Confidence Calibration

Do you know what you know? A Confidence Calibration Exercise. After answering each of the true/false questions below, indicate how confident you are in your answer using the corresponding slider. A value of 50% means you have no idea what the right answer is (the same probability as a random guess between the two choices); a value of 100% means you are completely confident in your answer.

INTERNAL PAGES

success-equation.com

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Home

http://www.success-equation.com/home.html

The Success Equation Simulations. A website for The Success Equation, a book by Michael J. Mauboussin from Harvard Business Review Press. Check out the various simulations, game and other content below. Buy the book on Amazon. Or Barnes and Noble. If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? A slightly revised version of the classic model. Set skill and luck values then see how the season plays out. Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge.

2

Bibliography

http://www.success-equation.com/errata.html

The Success Equation Simulations. On page ix, the name of John Glavin is mispelled as "Galvin". It is spelled correctly on the text on page 38. On page 80, the standard deviatino of luck should be 0.0552, not .552 as shown in text.

3

Videos

http://www.success-equation.com/videos.html

The Success Equation Simulations. The Success Equation Part 1. The Success Equation Part 2.

4

Tennis Simulation

http://www.success-equation.com/tennis.html

The Success Equation Simulations. Simulate a tennis match. Type the probability that player 1 wins one point in the box provided and press enter or the run simulation button. The probability player 1 has of winnning a 5 set match will appear in the pie chart. Player 1's probability of winning one point:. Player 2's probability of winning one point: 50%.

5

Mind Reading Machine

http://www.success-equation.com/mind_reader.html

The Success Equation Simulations. Use the left and right arrow keys to enter 0 and 1 respectively. The computer uses an algorithm tries to guess what you are going to input next. If the computer guesses correctly, it gets a point. If it guesses incorrectly you get a point. First to 50 wins. Try to choose your inputs as randomly as possible so the computer can't tell what is coming next.

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michaelmauboussin.com

Homepage of Michael Mauboussin

http://www.michaelmauboussin.com/index.html

Michael J. Mauboussin. Wall Street Investment Strategist, Author, Professor. Michael J. Mauboussin is a Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. Prior to rejoining CS in 2013, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also the author of three books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. Buy on Amazon». Read more ». No one intentionall...

michaelmauboussin.com

Books

http://www.michaelmauboussin.com/books.html

Michael J. Mauboussin. More Than You Know. Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. What role, exactly, do skill and luck play in our successes and failures? Some games, like roulette and the lottery, are pure luck. Others, like chess, exist at the other end of the spectrum, relying almost wholly on players’ skill. But in every other domain—from business, to investing, to sports—skill and luck seem almost hopelessly entangled. Among the insights that Mauboussin reveals:. Few people a...

statlit.org

StatLit 2012

http://www.statlit.org/StatLit2012.htm

Highlights: [10th year Anniversary]. StatLit.org still growing. Downloads up 26%, Index views up 5%, Page views up 6%. Visits off 1%. Around 30,000 home page views, 130,000 page views, 170,000 visits and 245,000 downloads. Added two new pages: Blastland and Knapp. Google ranked Wikipedia as #1 for statistical literacy, StatLit.org as #2, Schield at Augsburg as #3. Wired Magazine's 2010. As #4 and the Univ. of Wollongong. As #5 Schield's 2004 paper, Statistical Literacy Curriculum Design. By Alan Agresti ...

blog.philbirnbaum.com

Sabermetric Research: More luck in outcomes doesn't imply less skilled players

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/02/more-luck-in-outcomes-doesnt-imply-less.html

Monday, February 18, 2013. More luck in outcomes doesn't imply less skilled players. A couple of weeks ago, Michael Mauboussin posted about how there's so much luck in the NHL's shortened season. Mauboussin is the author of " The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. Most of the comments to the post didn't quite get it. In particular, one commenter wrote, disbelievingly,. Did you watch the Rangers/Bruins game last night? Here's the point: the article doesn't say ...

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success-equation.com

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The Success Equation Simulations. A website for The Success Equation, a book by Michael J. Mauboussin from Harvard Business Review Press. Check out the various simulations, game and other content below. Buy the book on Amazon. Or Barnes and Noble. If you have a 51% chance of winning a single point, how often will you take the match? A slightly revised version of the classic model. Set skill and luck values then see how the season plays out. Try your hand at the classic game theory challenge.

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