thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com

The Figures Never Lie

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Friday, 12 July 2013. The systemic bias of run-style in racehorse analysis: surviving the Late-Headway Monkey. An understanding of sectional times comes a long way down the list of important capabilities of the successful punter. At the top, in my opinion, is money management and staking, for even a bettor who has a positive expectation will go busto if failing to understand the potentially devastating effect of variance.

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The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Friday, 12 July 2013. The systemic bias of run-style in racehorse analysis: surviving the Late-Headway Monkey. An understanding of sectional times comes a long way down the list of important capabilities of the successful punter. At the top, in my opinion, is money management and staking, for even a bettor who has a positive expectation will go busto if failing to understand the potentially devastating effect of variance.

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The Figures Never Lie | thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com Reviews

https://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Friday, 12 July 2013. The systemic bias of run-style in racehorse analysis: surviving the Late-Headway Monkey. An understanding of sectional times comes a long way down the list of important capabilities of the successful punter. At the top, in my opinion, is money management and staking, for even a bettor who has a positive expectation will go busto if failing to understand the potentially devastating effect of variance.

INTERNAL PAGES

thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com

1

The Figures Never Lie: June 2011

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Sunday, 26 June 2011. Statistical inference and mathematical modelling in sport (part 2). Summary of part 1. In the first part, we established the first major weapon of statistical inference - correlation. We saw that the correlation between goals scored and points earned for teams during the 2010-11 Premiership season was 0.867, while the correlation between goals conceded and points was -0.848. The forward correlation we a...

2

The Figures Never Lie: March 2013

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2013_03_01_archive.html

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Wednesday, 27 March 2013. Nonlinear dynamics of racehorse ratings: how upside can dominate exposed ability. Recall that 50,000 simulations of a race between five similarly exposed older horses produced the following results:. So, let's run the simulation again, holding all things equal expect that the difference between horses is now 2 points rather than 1 point. Coconut is still the same 88 horse but his rivals are spre...

3

The Figures Never Lie: March 2011

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2011_03_01_archive.html

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Friday, 25 March 2011. A bright and Amy-able young trainer. Yesterday morning, I went along to Kempton to watch a few horses trained by Amy Weaver. Some were out to be sharpened mentally, others to be prepared more specifically for forthcoming breeze-up sales. Most of all, meeting Amy reminded me of how determination can come in different packages. Some trainers are extroverted in this regard -. During our conversation, she ...

4

The Figures Never Lie: April 2011

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2011_04_01_archive.html

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Sunday, 10 April 2011. The deeper resonance of a confusing recital. Ryan Moore's bizarre ride on Recital in today's Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown may have been just a rare tactical error on the jockey's part. But my interpretation of events strikes at a deeper truth - one which could undermine the success of trainer Aidan O'Brien this season and perhaps beyond. Of course, O'Brien's magnificent record could not have...

5

The Figures Never Lie: Nonlinear dynamics of racehorse ratings: how upside can dominate exposed ability

http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/2013/03/nonlinear-dynamics-of-racehorse-ratings.html

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Wednesday, 27 March 2013. Nonlinear dynamics of racehorse ratings: how upside can dominate exposed ability. Recall that 50,000 simulations of a race between five similarly exposed older horses produced the following results:. So, let's run the simulation again, holding all things equal expect that the difference between horses is now 2 points rather than 1 point. Coconut is still the same 88 horse but his rivals are spre...

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The Figures Never Lie

The Figures Never Lie. James Willoughby's blog on sports betting by the numbers. Friday, 12 July 2013. The systemic bias of run-style in racehorse analysis: surviving the Late-Headway Monkey. An understanding of sectional times comes a long way down the list of important capabilities of the successful punter. At the top, in my opinion, is money management and staking, for even a bettor who has a positive expectation will go busto if failing to understand the potentially devastating effect of variance.

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