themacromunch.com

The Macro Munch - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which e

An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors

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The Macro Munch - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which e | themacromunch.com Reviews

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An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors

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The Macro Munch - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which e | themacromunch.com Reviews

https://themacromunch.com

An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors

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themacromunch.com

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The Macro Munch - Page 2 of 3 - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals,

http://themacromunch.com/page/2

44 207 100 5964. An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors. A BRIGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE US CORPORATE SPHERE. Friday • 9 October 2015 • 11:30. FINANCIAL HURRICANE SEASON: THROUGH THE EYE OF THE STORM.

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The Macro Munch - Page 3 of 3 - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals,

http://themacromunch.com/page/3

44 207 100 5964. An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors. ANOTHER BUND ROUT ON THE WAY. Friday • 31 July 2015 • 13:53. WE ARE NOT BACK TO BUSINESS AS USUAL. Monday • 27 July 2015 • 12:44. Both Greek ...

3

FOLLOW THE FED? - The Macro Munch

http://themacromunch.com/2015/11/09/follow-the-fed

44 207 100 5964. Monday • 9 November 2015 • 11:51. A consistent theme of sterling markets since mid-June has been that the market’s medium-term expectations for BoE tightening followed almost directly in line with what was being priced in for the Fed by the Fed Funds futures curve. The thinking being that the Bank of England’s MPC were keen to start raising rates but would be understandable wary of doing so before the Fed.

4

SHOULD WE LISTEN TO THE SKEW INDEX? - The Macro Munch

http://themacromunch.com/2015/10/19/should-we-listen-to-the-skew-index

44 207 100 5964. SHOULD WE LISTEN TO THE SKEW INDEX? Monday • 19 October 2015 • 10:43. The central forecast has to be for rising stock markets in the months ahead, all things considered, but driven mainly by seasonality and the big re-think on the part of central banks and policy makers regarding the need for ongoing support for developed markets. Which brings us onto the tail risks – that slight chance of a massive correction lying just around the corner. How do we know? Chinese markets appear to be wel...

5

HAVE WE GOT GERMANY ALL WRONG? - The Macro Munch

http://themacromunch.com/2015/11/13/have-we-got-germany-all-wrong

44 207 100 5964. HAVE WE GOT GERMANY ALL WRONG? Friday • 13 November 2015 • 13:04. So what price a settled Eurozone? Before answering that, I’d like to set out and challenge three pieces of popular wisdom regarding the Grande Dame of the Eurozone. Technically they all resigned. The Macro Munch makes the assumption that they were effectively forced to.

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monacoalpha.com

UPDATE: SHORT TERM IDEAS: DIA

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/short-term-ideas-dia

44 207 100 5964. UPDATE: SHORT TERM IDEAS: DIA. CLOSING FOR 6.2%. Tuesday 09 June 2015 13:02. Locking in 6.2% in our trading short initiated post the placing. We are in the eye of the market unwind where placing stocks tend to get punished as we saw yesterday. There was no fundamental basis for the trade and for that reason we are happy to take profits. Tuesday 19 May 2015 10:10. A smart controlling shareholder is selling entire stake. THE SECRET PM: BUY HEINEKEN. The Secret PM ideas. TITr vs. TIT.

monacoalpha.com

UPDATE: ALSTOM

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/alstom-buy

44 207 100 5964. Stay Long, Stock Cheap. Tuesday 18 August 2015 07:56. We used the opportunity at the end of July to buy ALO as the mkt punuished Alstom unfairly for contributing EUR300m to help with the competition commission concerns. Yesterdays news on reuters that GE is expected to win EU approval led to a 7% rally. Although near our initial PT of 27.5-28 we stay long here as see the stock as cheap and see many synergies from the deal. New PT30.(currently 6.1% on the trade). Tuesday 28 July 2015 10:42.

monacoalpha.com

Monaco Alpha

http://monacoalpha.com/page/2

44 207 100 5964. GS PUSHING THIS MORNING. Tuesday 28 June 2016 08:56. GS on SHIRE: It’s all about the growth and cash flow; reinstate at CL-Buy Source of opportunity We believe Shire’s current valuation (10x 2017E P/E) is very attractive relative to its growth profile (9% revenue/15% EPS CAGR 2017-20E) and the cash generation outlook. We believe current Bloomberg consensus and valuation significantly underestimate: 1) synergy potential…. For full note click here. Monday 27 June 2016 14:37. The recent sel...

monacoalpha.com

ORANGE: BUY

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/orange-buy

44 207 100 5964. Wednesday 24 June 2015 14:06. Following the much anticipated and recently forgotten French consolidation announcement yesterday, we think the market was focusing on the wrong things in ORA FP. The feedback yesterday was that Orange benefits the least, it will not get spectrum like Iliad, and will not realise synergies like Numericable or Bouygues. This may be the case, but we think it misses the point. Putting it on 6.5x would get you to EUR19. The Secret PM ideas. TITr vs. TIT.

monacoalpha.com

BUY EON

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/monaco-alpha-buy-eon

44 207 100 5964. TECHNICAL TRADE CREATES AN OPPORTUNITY. Wednesday 27 May 2015 14:34. Been poor of late, some of which is related to a continued decline of power prices. However, more significant is the take up of the scrip div which is priced today. Http:/ www.eon.com/en/investors/stocks/scripdividend/scripdividend.html. The demerger is another major catalyst where we see major upside on a SOTP approach. This will also lead to a substantial dividend increase. The Secret PM ideas. TITr vs. TIT.

monacoalpha.com

Contact

http://monacoalpha.com/join-mailing-list

44 207 100 5964. Fill in your details below to join our mailing list. We will not pass your details on to any other third party. If you are a human and are seeing this field, please leave it blank. Fields marked with a * are required. Whats Hot Whats Not: Movers and Groovers. What is thirteen minus 6?

monacoalpha.com

Monaco Alpha

http://monacoalpha.com/page/17

44 207 100 5964. UPDATE: THE SECRET PM. GS UPGRADES TO BUY. Tuesday 11 November 2014 10:38. Goldman upgrade Pirelli to Buy on the back of its resilient earnings growth in the context of a challenging market environment. We believe the successful execution of Pirelli’s premium strategy, and thus continued delivery of solid earnings growth, should drive a re-rating. 12-month share PT EUR13.5 Friday 07 November 2014 09:47 At…. For full note click here. UPDATE: THE SECRET PM. BUY PIRELLI: 50% UPSIDE. We are ...

monacoalpha.com

SKF: BUY

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/skf-buy

44 207 100 5964. BEFORE THE 2H REBOUND. Monday 20 July 2015 14:48. With its guidance cut SKF has now re-based expectations down to a level where, on 12x PE and less than 10x EBIT, we feel comfortable buying for an 2H rebound, continuing on into 2016. The CFO’s guidance communication was poor. To the extent he sent an apology via email post the conf call. Sequential demand is always down in 3Q due to seasonality and we now feel that there is upside going into the quarter. The Secret PM ideas.

monacoalpha.com

Monaco Alpha

http://monacoalpha.com/page/5

44 207 100 5964. MRW and TESCO: SELL. FRESH WAVE OF PRICE CUTS. Friday 12 February 2016 11:43. UK retailers: Retail Week saying Aldi launching fresh wave of price cuts… UK supermarkets have been very good recently on an unwind predicated on margin improvement. A fresh wave of price cuts would blow this out of the water. Would be selling MRW and TSCO first. For full note click here. MASSIVE POSITIVE SURPRISE; TRADING AT 0.3x P/B. Friday 12 February 2016 09:12. For full note click here. KPN formed part of ...

monacoalpha.com

UPDATE: PEUGEOT

http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/update-peugeot-11

44 207 100 5964. STAY LONG/ADD INTO NUMBERS. Tuesday 28 July 2015 14:55. Results are widely expected to be good tomorrow which is likely to produce some near term risk, but also likely to provide comfort for our longer term view; the auto margin for 1H should comfortably surpass the 2% 2018 target, which supports a stock price through EUR20. Cash is also likely to beat if it has been up-streamed quicker than expected from the de-consolidation of Finco. THE THREE LIONS KEEP ROARING: STAY LONG 35.02%.

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The Macro Munch - An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which e

44 207 100 5964. An economist and debt capital market analyst's take on those questions that keep central Bank Governors, Presidents and Prime Ministers up at night. In a market where policy often holds the whip hand over fundamentals, a blog which explores those inevitable contradictions from which spring the pitfalls and opportunities faced by intrepid investors. Friday • 18 December 2015 • 10:21. WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT DEFLATION. Monday • 14 December 2015 • 11:25. NOT SO SUPER MARIO. Mario Draghi doesn...

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