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The Uncertain Future

Visualizing The Future According to You. The Uncertain Future is a future technology and world-modeling project by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:. We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your answer to the question: When will human-level AI be invented? We'll model your beliefs in four parts:. Is human-level AI possible in principle? What if a nuclear or other catastrophe interrupts AI research?

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Visualizing The Future According to You. The Uncertain Future is a future technology and world-modeling project by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:. We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your answer to the question: When will human-level AI be invented? We'll model your beliefs in four parts:. Is human-level AI possible in principle? What if a nuclear or other catastrophe interrupts AI research?
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The Uncertain Future | theuncertainfuture.com Reviews

https://theuncertainfuture.com

Visualizing The Future According to You. The Uncertain Future is a future technology and world-modeling project by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:. We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your answer to the question: When will human-level AI be invented? We'll model your beliefs in four parts:. Is human-level AI possible in principle? What if a nuclear or other catastrophe interrupts AI research?

INTERNAL PAGES

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The Uncertain Future --- Frequently Asked Questions

http://theuncertainfuture.com/faq.html

What do we mean by non-biological? What is human-level Artificial Intelligence? What is neuromorphic AI? What is Moore's Law? What is non-neuromorphic AI? What are some major risks to human civilization over the next 60 years? What is multi-generational in vitro embryo selection? Without frequency data or a formal model, does it even make sense to talk about "probabilities", like the "probability" that human-level AI is possible in principle, or the "probability" that Moore's Law will continue until 2020?

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The Uncertain Future

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The Gory Math

http://theuncertainfuture.com/ufHelp/GoryMath.html

Uncertain Future Math: The Long Version. The math involved in computing A5: the probability of neuromorphic AI. The math involved in computing A6: the probability of all AI. The math involved in computing A8: the probability of a major disaster. The math involved in computing A9: the probability of all AI, including the effects of intelligence enhancement. The math involved in computing A10: the probability of a disruption to civilization.

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Predicted | What did they once forecast for now? | Page 2

https://predicted.wordpress.com/page/2

What did they once forecast for now? DE, Meta] Es ist schlichtweg unmöglich, Unvorhersehbares vorherzusehen. Comments Off on [DE, Meta] Es ist schlichtweg unmöglich, Unvorhersehbares vorherzusehen. Vince Ebert über Prognosen und Weissagungen:. Die Achse des Guten: Warum unsere Zukunft nicht berechenbar ist. Electronic ID card use in Germany. Comments Off on Electronic ID card use in Germany. Date of prediction: 2010-10-29. Require a low level of security (e.g. electronic filing of tax forms), or. Der Eur...

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Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2014/09/11/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-wasnt

What did they once forecast for now? How to see into the future. Apple’s wearable arrives in October. Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t. Comments Off on Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t. Date of prediction: 2011-05-17. Remember the Bitcoin craze of 2011? Some believed that cryptography and peer-to-peer networking could create not only a metaphor of currency, but an actual currency. Others cautioned us, answering the question whether Bitcoin was a good idea:. PS (2016-01-15): https:/ medium.com/@octskyward/t...

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Security Trend Analysis with CVE Topic Models | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/security-trend-analysis-with-cve-topic-models

What did they once forecast for now? Apple’s wearable arrives in October. Meta: Do experts make better forecasts? Security Trend Analysis with CVE Topic Models. Comments Off on Security Trend Analysis with CVE Topic Models. Date of forecast: November, 2010 (based on CVE data until end of 2009). Stephan Neuhaus of Universit`a degli Studi di Trento and Thomas Zimmermann of Microsoft Research used the Common Vulnerability and Exposures (CVE. Database to predict security trends:. On BRA vs. GER prediction.

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3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/3d-printing-will-explode-in-2014-when-key-patents-expire

What did they once forecast for now? Douglas Casey: Inflation, Euro crash. 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. Comments Off on 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. Date of prediction: 2013-07-22. A short-term prediction regarding the 3D printer market:. Mashable: 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. Douglas Casey: Inflation, Euro crash. On BRA vs. GER prediction. On Google predicts the winners of the quarterfinals. The Future According to You.

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Apple’s wearable arrives in October | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/apples-wearable-arrives-in-october

What did they once forecast for now? Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t. Security Trend Analysis with CVE Topic Models. Apple’s wearable arrives in October. Comments Off on Apple’s wearable arrives in October. Date of prediction: 2014-06-06. Predict that Apple will launch its iWatch, or some other iWearable, in October. (via heise online. Bitcoin cryptocurrency wasn’t. Security Trend Analysis with CVE Topic Models. On BRA vs. GER prediction. On Google predicts the winners of the quarterfinals.

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Douglas Casey: Inflation, Euro crash | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2015/07/16/douglas-casey-inflation-euro-crash-2

What did they once forecast for now? 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. Electronic ID card use in Germany. Douglas Casey: Inflation, Euro crash. Comments Off on Douglas Casey: Inflation, Euro crash. Date of prediction: 2010-03-15. Douglas casey expects that the Euro-zone will break up until 2015 and the European Union until 2020 (quote in German):. Handelsblatt.com: Querdenker Douglas Casey: Ich erwarte eine horrende Inflation. Electronic ID card use in Germany.

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2015 Oscars | Predicted

https://predicted.wordpress.com/2015/02/22/2015-oscars

What did they once forecast for now? Meta: Do experts make better forecasts? 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. Comments Off on 2015 Oscars. Ben Zauzmer has developed a model from lots of data and applies it to make predictions about this year’s Oscars. Because he makes probabilistic predictions, no single outcome can prove him wrong. Meta: Do experts make better forecasts? 3D Printing Will Explode in 2014 When Key Patents Expire. On BRA vs. GER prediction. Send to Email Address.

nesteduniverse.net nesteduniverse.net

Artificial Intelligence: Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Science and Technology: The Singularity

http://nesteduniverse.net/nesteduniverse/aritificial_intelligence

Singularity, A.I. Events. What is the Singularity? June 12, 2012. Self-Driving Cars: End of the Human Driving Era. It's 2030 and less than 1% of the current 190 million drivers in the U.S. can still legally drive. The reason: all 51 states (Puerto Rico was granted statehood in 2022) have prohibited human drivers from taking direct control of passenger vehicles while on public roads unless they are specifically trained and have a compelling reason. Farfetched? The Case for Autonomous Cars. With more recen...

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Mathematics: Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Science and Technology: The Singularity

http://nesteduniverse.net/nesteduniverse/mathematics

Singularity, A.I. Events. What is the Singularity? October 21, 2010. Predicting Stock Market Behavior with Social Networks. IStockphoto / James Steidl. Using a self-organizing fuzzy neural network model, researchers were able to correlate stock market movement 3 days in advance. With a nearly 90% success rate by analyzing mood from a statistical sampling of tweets from Twitter. Two mood measurement tools were used in the model. OpinionFinder. December 12, 2009. The application allows users to provide the...

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Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Science and Technology: The Singularity

http://nesteduniverse.net/nesteduniverse

Singularity, A.I. Events. What is the Singularity? June 12, 2012. Self-Driving Cars: End of the Human Driving Era. It's 2030 and less than 1% of the current 190 million drivers in the U.S. can still legally drive. The reason: all 51 states (Puerto Rico was granted statehood in 2022) have prohibited human drivers from taking direct control of passenger vehicles while on public roads unless they are specifically trained and have a compelling reason. Farfetched? The Case for Autonomous Cars. With more recen...

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Theuncertainbell's Blog | I write to create myself.

I write to create myself. The woman behind the questions. A Luncheon with Ideas to Munch On. November 1, 2011. An email sent to the northeast debate listserv from Mary Nugent (Coach at University of Vermont and former Cambridge Debater/Trainer):. During lunch on Saturday, Rochester hosted a luncheon discussion to talk about underrepresented identities in debate. In true debate style, we discussed three questions:. 1) Problems that exist may prevent under-represented groups from participating in debate.

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Blog de TheUncertainDream - Blog de TheUncertainDream - Skyrock.com

Mot de passe :. J'ai oublié mon mot de passe. La dangereuse histoire d'amour entre Niall Horan et Selena Gomez. La nuit mystère PROLOGUE. Bienvenus sur ma fiction The Uncertain Dream. C'est une fiction dark qui contiendra des scènes violentes ainsi que du. Je suis aussi la Web Miss du blog : Malik-darkness. Mes fictions coup de cœur. 65279; Mon nom est Selena et ma vie n'a jamais été parfaite,. J'ai 16 ans et j'élève seule ma soeur. à la mort de mes parents. 65279;To be continue. Je suis répertoriée ici :.

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Our true business is to be happy. You're leaving or losing your corporate job and you're trying to decide whether to take the plunge into entrepreneurship.  You've always dreamed of owning your own business. You may even have a business plan on a shelf somewhere. But at night you're plagued by questions. . Eady, but you're not ready. 160; Should I? 160; What If? Does this describe you? What am I doing wrong? I wish I had known . If you said yes to any of these scenarios, then you are an. I will help you ...

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The Uncertain Future

Visualizing The Future According to You. The Uncertain Future is a future technology and world-modeling project by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. How to use our system to draw your picture of the future:. We'll ask you a sequence of questions aimed at getting your answer to the question: When will human-level AI be invented? We'll model your beliefs in four parts:. Is human-level AI possible in principle? What if a nuclear or other catastrophe interrupts AI research?

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The Uncertain Game | Episode 1: The Last Quiet Day

Получи артбук и саундтрек:. WordPress YouTube Gallery Plugin. Представьте, что перед вами стоит сложный моральный выбор в мире, где не существует понятия морали, где всем руководит только логика, а каждое принятое решение лишь поток нулей и единиц. Многие привычные нам понятия в таком мире приобретают совершенно иное содержание, а некоторые и вовсе становятся пустыми, упраздняются. Однако свобода выбора остается всегда, у всех разумных существ, даже если вы не человек. Итоги года от команды ComonGames.

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the uncertain investor

Thoughts about investing (and some other things). Charles Munger: A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly. Http:/ www.safalniveshak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Lesson-on-Elementary-Worldly-Wisdom-Charlie-Munger.pdf. The mining investor’s handbook. Follow links: http:/ www.fool.com.au/author/mitchsonogan/. Http:/ www.gurufocus.com/news/349680/fairholme-fund-bruce-berkowitz-june-30-investor-letter. Jim Grant on Gold. Interesting and relevant to BBG and ZQK. View profile at Medium.com. Blog at WordPress.com.

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DOWN THE ROAD | Travelers, Voyageurs, Viajeros!

Travelers, Voyageurs, Viajeros! Le pont de Saint-Nazaire. July 17, 2013. Puente que cruza el rio “Loire” desde la Ciudad de Saint Nazaire hasta Saint Brevin. Mide 3km y está permitido que Peatones y autos lo atraviesen. July 2, 2013. This pic was taken in the summer of 2012 when my Friend Ixai and I were road tripping on our bicycles. The photo is a link to a video that we made to resume our trip. There are other videos giving tips and information about bicycling in Europe. June 27, 2013. June 24, 2013.

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The Uncertain Radical

Thinking it possible I may be mistaken. Wednesday, March 24, 2010. In particular, the incentives that will exist in the 2014-2015 period under the law in its current form are bizarre and could cause all sorts of meltdowns. Bryan Caplan lays out a few of the possibilities here. And again, we are not talking about tinker-around-the-edges questions here, but about whether the thing will work at all. Tuesday, March 23, 2010. Radical uncertainty" is a philosophical concept from Austrian economics. I am no...