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Aleph Insights - Aleph Insights | alephinsights.com Reviews
https://alephinsights.com
Supporting strategic decision-making in business and government
Aleph Insights
Improving Analysis and Decision-Making. Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis.
Aleph Insights: 'Confidence' and 'Probability': Introduction
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/03/confidence-and-probability-introduction.html
Wednesday, 18 March 2015. Confidence' and 'Probability': Introduction. Analysts, researchers, scientists and other seekers of truth very often wish to express a level of confidence in a probabilistic judgement. For example, most people if given some time to try out a fair coin will be happy to say:. This coin has a 50% chance of coming up heads in the next toss.". There is a 50% chance that David Cameron is older than Rick Astley.". Are you sure about that? In the next few posts. Is it possible to design...
Aleph Insights: August 2015
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015_08_01_archive.html
Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis. Statements, and nine in ten are false.
Aleph Insights: The Impact of Information on Probability
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/08/the-impact-of-information-on-probability.html
Wednesday, 12 August 2015. The Impact of Information on Probability. We alluded to the fact that information tends to push probabilities towards 0 or 1. If you're not familiar with information theory, this might not seem obvious at all. After all, when we say something is 10% likely, on one occasion out of ten it will turn out to be true - further information will push its probability away. This post zooms in on this idea, since it's a very important one in analysis. Statements, and nine in ten are false.
Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 6: The 'Information' and 'Ignorance' Theories
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/05/confidence-and-probability-part-6.html
Tuesday, 19 May 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 6: The Information and Ignorance Theories. In our last post. We looked at the theory that 'confidence' was related to uncertainty about a 'true' probability. This was the first of seven theories. That have been put forward as to how confidence judgements should be interpreted. In this post, we'll look at the next two theories - 'Information' and 'Ignorance'. The 'Information' theory suggests that the difference between. As with all the theories of 'co...
Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 7: The 'Quality' Theory
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/06/confidence-and-probability-part-7.html
Thursday, 18 June 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 7: The 'Quality' Theory. In the last post, we examined the ' Information' and 'Ignorance. Theories of analytical confidence. In this post, we'll look at the 'Quality' Theory of analytical confidence. And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not,. Shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand". As with all these theories, we'll put it to three tests: is it coherent. Does it accord with analysts' usage.
Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 4: Theories of Confidence
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/04/confidence-and-probability-part-4.html
Wednesday, 15 April 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 4: Theories of Confidence. In the last post. We took a bit of a detour into 'confidence intervals', so as to avoid potential confusion later on. In this post, we will present a list of interpretations for analytical 'confidence' that have been advanced by organisations or analysts, and that have been harvested from personal experience, official guidance, and returns from a survey conducted last year by Aleph Insights. This theory suggests that 'co...
Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 5: The 'Uncertain Probability' Theory
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/05/confidence-and-probability-part-5.html
Friday, 1 May 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 5: The 'Uncertain Probability' Theory. This is part 5 of a series of posts about probability and confidence that starts here. In the last post. As with all these theories, we'll apply three tests: internal coherence, alignment with usage, and decision relevance. Is the theory internally coherent? If the 'uncertain probability' theory is correct, probability is a kind of quantity about which it's meaningful to be uncertain. This has prima facie. Whether ...
Aleph Insights: July 2015
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015_07_01_archive.html
Thursday, 16 July 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory. Measure the extent to which an assessment is based on 'background information' rather than case-specific data? This is a tempting idea. There seems to be a qualitative difference between the following assessments:. The probability of rain in Las Vegas tomorrow is 7%, because it rains on average there 25 days a year.". Of information, implying that in both cases above (where the probability is 7%), the information conten...
Aleph Insights: Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015/07/confidence-and-probability-part-8-prior.html
Thursday, 16 July 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 8: The 'Prior Weight' Theory. Measure the extent to which an assessment is based on 'background information' rather than case-specific data? This is a tempting idea. There seems to be a qualitative difference between the following assessments:. The probability of rain in Las Vegas tomorrow is 7%, because it rains on average there 25 days a year.". Of information, implying that in both cases above (where the probability is 7%), the information conten...
Aleph Insights: June 2015
http://blog.alephinsights.com/2015_06_01_archive.html
Thursday, 18 June 2015. Confidence and Probability Part 7: The 'Quality' Theory. In the last post, we examined the ' Information' and 'Ignorance. Theories of analytical confidence. In this post, we'll look at the 'Quality' Theory of analytical confidence. And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not,. Shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand". As with all these theories, we'll put it to three tests: is it coherent. Does it accord with analysts' usage.
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ALEPH Asociados
Estamos autorizados para realizar estudios de Impacto Ambiental con RD n 340-2009-MEN/AAMM y Estudios de Aguas Subterráneas de la ANA con RD-02011-ANA-DARH. Av Guzmán Blanco 240/ Oficina 704. Estudio Hidrológico e Hidrogeológico de la Unidad Minera Untuca. Estudio Hidrológico e Hidrogeológico del Proyecto de Exploración Minera Antay. Caracterización Hidrogeoquímica de la Unidad Minera Contonga. Estudio de Impacto Ambiental Semidetallado del Proyecto Minero Pampa de Pongo. Nuestra premisa es la soluci&oac...
Aleph
12 Mart 2016 Cumartesi. Eski yazılarımın başına gelenler (temsili). Yazmadığım dönemde çok güzel kitaplar okudum, çok güzel de filmler izledim. Çok değerliler, bende çok fazla yere sahipler. Temel şeyleri hatırlamamı sağladılar. Belki yaş olarak büyümemden de ileri gelebilir, farklı bir şekilde bakmaya başladım hayata. Özetle blogta iyi şeylerden bahsetmeye çalışacağım, tabii gerçekliği göz ardı etmeden. 27 Aralık 2015 Pazar. Yeni Yılınız İyi Olsun! Birbirimizi koruyalım, başka kimsemiz yok. Yani dah...
Aleph in Kitchen
Uzun bir süre oldu blog ile ilgilenmeyeli. Fotoğrafları çekip instagram'a ekliyorum ama sıra bir türlü tarifleri yazmaya gelmiyor. bugün bu döngüye bir son vermeye karar verdim. Hayran olduğum Şef Jamie Oliver'dan pratik ve lezzetli bir tarif paylaşarak tatlı bir geri dönüş yapıyorum. 8 yemek kaşığı toz şeker. 8 yemek kaşığı un. 1 çay kaşığı vanilya (yoksa yarım paket vanilin de kullanabilirsiniz.). 125 gr. tereyağı (ben margarin kullanmıyorum size de önermiyorum! 1 küçük kase vişne. 1 küçük kase ahududu.
Beobachtungen - Der Parlamentarische Rat 1948/49
Am 1 September 1948 tritt der Parlamentarische Rat in Bonn zusammen. Er hat die Aufgabe, ein Grundgesetz für die spätere Bundesrepublik Deutschland zu beraten und zu beschließen. Am 23. Mai 1949 wird es unterzeichnet und verkündet. Die Fotografin Erna Wagner-Hehmke.
Aleph Insights - Aleph Insights
Supporting strategic decision-making in business and government. We deliver training to develop your organisation’s analytical skills. We provide analytical consultancy services to help you make better decisions. We develop bespoke analytical tools to help support your decisions. Find out more about Aleph Insights and our approach to analysis and. Photos used under Creative Commons from Andrew Kelsall, Graphic Designer.
The Aleph Institute
Aleph has created and implemented a host of. Highly-acclaimed programs for Jews who are. Isolated due to incarceration. Providing support and assisting thousands of. Jewish men and women serving in the United States. Armed Forces with Jewish books, material, and. Moral and spiritual support. Some of the most important services provided. By Aleph are for families in crisis,particularly. The thousands of innocent spouses. And children of inmates. Please update your Flash Player. Legal / Non Profit.
The Aleph Institute
Aleph has created and implemented a host of. Highly-acclaimed programs for Jews who are. Isolated due to incarceration. Providing support and assisting thousands of. Jewish men and women serving in the United States. Armed Forces with Jewish books, material, and. Moral and spiritual support. Some of the most important services provided. By Aleph are for families in crisis,particularly. The thousands of innocent spouses. And children of inmates. Please update your Flash Player. Legal / Non Profit.
The Aleph Institute
Aleph has created and implemented a host of. Highly-acclaimed programs for Jews who are. Isolated due to incarceration. Providing support and assisting thousands of. Jewish men and women serving in the United States. Armed Forces with Jewish books, material, and. Moral and spiritual support. Some of the most important services provided. By Aleph are for families in crisis,particularly. The thousands of innocent spouses. And children of inmates. Please update your Flash Player. Legal / Non Profit.
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Safety Apparel and Clothing. Flyer Coveralls and Gloves. Protecting you from harm. Welcome to Aleph International. Aleph International, one of the leading suppliers of Personal Protection Equipment and Clothing, offers a comprehensive range of impact protection and security products from gloves to face hoods and coveralls to uniforms. Aleph International is always there, protecting you from harm. We offer a wide range of Personal Protective Clothing and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) including:.
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