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MI Regression | Civil war, prediction, and RCivil war, prediction, and R (by Andreas Beger)
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Civil war, prediction, and R (by Andreas Beger)
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MI Regression | Civil war, prediction, and R | andybeger.com Reviews
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Civil war, prediction, and R (by Andreas Beger)
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The Thailand coup and some recent forecasting work - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2014/05/23/the-thailand-coup-and-some-recent-forecasting-work
Conflict forecasting, data science. The Thailand coup and some recent forecasting work. I blogged earlier at Predictive Heuristics about the Thailand coup and some forecasting work. I’ve recently been part of:. This morning (East Coast time), the Thai military staged a coup. Against the caretaker government that had been in power for the past several weeks, after months of protests and political turmoil directed at the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, who herself had been ordered to resign on 7 May.
The right kind of variance - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance
Conflict forecasting, data science. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance&...
Precision-recall curves - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2015/03/16/precision-recall-curves
Conflict forecasting, data science. There’s a PDF of this now, at http:/ ssrn.com/abstract=2765419. Begin{array}{c cc} Y and p theta and p geq theta hline 0 and text{True Neg.} and text{False Pos.} 1 and text{False Neg.} and text{True Pos.} end{array} $. Which gives the following ROC curve if we plot the TP and FP rates:. ROC curve for the example data. And 1-5 per 10,000 for IEDs in Afghanistan. Begin{array}{c cc} Y and p theta and p geq theta hline 0 and 10,000 and 1,000 1 and 100 and 100 end{array} $.
Good coup, bad coup - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2015/07/10/good-coup-bad-coup
Conflict forecasting, data science. Good coup, bad coup. This post first appeared at Predictive Heuristics. Wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coups namely are those that lead to democratization, rather than outcomes one might more commonly associate with coups, like military rule, dictatorship, or instability. Elischer, although on the whole less optimistic about good coups than Noyes, writes:. By the way, I’m trying to consc...
A quick look at the public ICEWS data - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2015/04/08/public-icews-data
I'm a quantitative political scientist. A quick look at the public ICEWS data. The ICEWS data, including the underlying raw event data as well as some aggregations, were quietly posted on Dataverse. The Friday before last. I’ve worked with the ICEWS data for several years now, first when I was working on on the ICEWS package we deliver updated monthly forecasts for the ICEWS events of interest (EOIs) once a month and more recently for the irregular leadership change forecasting project. It turns out that...
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The right kind of variance | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 6, 2014. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance. So sometimes it’s good to have co...Coding ...
Games on networks, with application to Thai politics | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/19/games-on-networks-with-application-to-thai-politics
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 19, 2013. Games on networks, with application to Thai politics. The top rug shows the different parties that are in power in Thailand during the observation period, with markers for changes in power. The bottom plot shows conflictual events in Thailand from 1998 on. Six dead in shootout in Thai south. Thailand begins monitoring of Facebook, YouTube and LINE. Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
Prediction versus Explanation? | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/31/prediction-versus-explanation
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 31, 2013. Is an early warning system designed to help US policy analysts predict a variety of international crises. This project was created at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in 2007. Gated) described the early phase of the project in 2010, including assessments of its accuracy, and a WIRED article in 2011 criticized ICEWS. For missing the Arab Spring–at a time when the project was only focused on Asia. In an article ( here for now. In Foreign Policy,.
A primer on web scraping with R | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/28/a-primer-on-web-scraping-with-r
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 28, 2014. A primer on web scraping with R. The current data situation on the Web. Not pictured: landing net R. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. This is a guest post by Simon Munzert, PhD student at the University of Konstanz, who is currently on a visit at the Lab. And its potential for so. Still, during my short stay at the Lab as a visiting scholar I had the opportunity to give a little introduction to various web scraping techniques using R. To scrape data from a we...
Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/01/16/political-parties-the-eurozone-crisis-and-icews-data
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. January 16, 2014. Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data. Large-scale event data based on worldwide media reports already help us to explain and forecast crises events. Such as civil wars or insurgencies. But the millions of data points provided by ICEWS or GDELT. Are a treasure trove for social scientists interested in all kinds of topics, whether they involve violence or not. And the Comparative Manifestos Project. I use the ICEWS event data to analyze the way...
Academic papers | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/category/academic-papers
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Civilian Victimization and Social Networks. September 9, 2014. This question eventually led me to co-organize a national survey in Mexico in July 2012, with my colleague Sandra Ley Gutierrez, focusing on the consequences of criminal victimization. In this survey, I collected original data on 1,000 kinship networks as a way to capture social networks at the individual level. Friends and Neighbors in the Arms Trade. February 3, 2014. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. Black market...
cassyld | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/author/cassyld
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Civilian Victimization and Social Networks. September 9, 2014. This question eventually led me to co-organize a national survey in Mexico in July 2012, with my colleague Sandra Ley Gutierrez, focusing on the consequences of criminal victimization. In this survey, I collected original data on 1,000 kinship networks as a way to capture social networks at the individual level. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
Uncategorized | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/category/uncategorized
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. A primer on web scraping with R. October 28, 2014. The current data situation on the Web. Not pictured: landing net R. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. This is a guest post by Simon Munzert, PhD student at the University of Konstanz, who is currently on a visit at the Lab. And its potential for so. Still, during my short stay at the Lab as a visiting scholar I had the opportunity to give a little introduction to various web scraping techniques using R. August 27, 2014. Collabo...
mdwardlab | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/author/mdwardlab
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. A primer on web scraping with R. October 28, 2014. The current data situation on the Web. Not pictured: landing net R. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. This is a guest post by Simon Munzert, PhD student at the University of Konstanz, who is currently on a visit at the Lab. And its potential for so. Still, during my short stay at the Lab as a visiting scholar I had the opportunity to give a little introduction to various web scraping techniques using R. August 27, 2014. Collabo...
实验室文章：迈向冲突预测的新时代 | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/08/27/实验室文章：迈向冲突预测的新时代
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. August 27, 2014. 为了呈现冲突研究在过去几年的重大进展，本文重新检视Fearon and Laitin (2003)这份奠定冲突研究基础的文献，从而比较和凸显预测分析在近几年的进展。 站在修正Fearon and Laitin的基础上，我们利用年度层次以下的事件时间解析数据来建构冲突预测模型，并且运用层级模型(hierarchical model)来追踪估计变量在不同国家属性群集中的变化。 在左边的红线表示负向的错误预测(false negative)，但在右边白色表示正向的错误预测(false positive)，一个高配适度的预测应该会有比较多的红色部分 事件发生 在图的右侧。 Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Which has our conflict forecasts. Here are our members. Good coup, bad coup.
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MI Regression | Civil war, prediction, and R
Civil war, prediction, and R. Good coup, bad coup. July 10, 2015. This post first appeared at Predictive Heuristics. Wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coups namely are those that lead to democratization, rather than outcomes one might more commonly associate with coups, like military rule, dictatorship, or instability. Elischer, although on the whole less optimistic about good coups than Noyes, writes:. April 8, 2015. The Fri...
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