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Predictive Heuristics | Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U.Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U.
http://www.predictiveheuristics.com/
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Predictive Heuristics | Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. | predictiveheuristics.com Reviews
https://predictiveheuristics.com
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U.
predictiveheuristics.com
Good coup, bad coup | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2015/07/08/good-coup-bad-coup
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. July 8, 2015. Good coup, bad coup. Wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coups namely are those that lead to democratization, rather than outcomes one might more commonly associate with coups, like military rule, dictatorship, or instability. Elischer, although on the whole less optimistic about good coups than Noyes, writes:. That is referenced in the blog posts and added the Polity data on regimes.
When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2015/08/10/yemen-investigation
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. August 10, 2015. When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen. To provide some background, the ILC forecasts are generated from an ensemble of seven. Split-population duration models. For more details on how this works or what irregular leadership changes are and how we code them, take a look at our R&P paper. Or this longer arXiv writeup. Answer for how to weigh these two factors. Say that the forecasts in this table should. On average, etc. And flight to Saudi Arabia in March.
Lab projects | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/category/lab-projects
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen. August 10, 2015. To provide some background, the ILC forecasts are generated from an ensemble of seven. Split-population duration models. For more details on how this works or what irregular leadership changes are and how we code them, take a look at our R&P paper. Or this longer arXiv writeup. Good coup, bad coup. July 8, 2015. Here is a quick look at the larger picture. I took the same Powell and Thyne data on coups. Coups that the ...
Mining Texts to Generate Fuzzy Measures of Political Regime Type at Low Cost | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/08/26/mining-texts-to-generate-fuzzy-measures-of-political-regime-type-at-low-cost
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. August 26, 2014. Mining Texts to Generate Fuzzy Measures of Political Regime Type at Low Cost. Mining Texts to Generate Fuzzy Measures of Political Regime Type at Low Cost. Reposted from Dart Throwing Chimp, by Jay Ulfelder. Regime type is hard, and conventional measures of regime type suffer from one or two crucial drawbacks. Freedom in the World. Overview of MADCOW Regime Classification Process. The red bars in the separation plot will appear to the right of all o. These prel...
Predictive Heuristics | Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. | Page 2
https://predictiveheuristics.com/page/2
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Notes From a First Foray into Text Mining. August 15, 2014. This post was written by Jay Ulfelder and originally appeared on Dart-Throwing Chimp. The work it describes is part of the NSF-funded MADCOW project to automate the coding of common political science datasets. Text mining isn’t push-button, data-making magic, either. As Phil Schrodt. Likes to say, there is no Data Fairy. I wish I could say that I’m doing the programming for this task. Modeling and predicting IEDs.
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Quantitative Analysis of Civil Conflict - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/quant-civcon
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:. Meeting / Office Hours. Students wanting to sign up for office hours or set up a meeting, go here: Schedule a meeting with Calendly. FP Middle East Channel. Global Voices Middle East.
about ibn monkey - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/ibnmonkey/about
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. I created ibn monkey in 2009 thinking I would write about Middle East politics while working on my PhD studies in the Department of Political Science. Perhaps predictably, given the demands of coursework and teaching, there was failure to launch. The Moor Next Door.
351 CPME Fall 2009 - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/351cpmef09
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. 351 CPME Fall 2009. Dear students of 351:. MENA Map and Country Info (for quiz 1). To date (teaching/30): PDF Here. Note: Grades include Map Quiz, Exam 1 (curved), and Exam 2. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions. Meeting / Office Hours.
351 CPME Summer 2010 - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/351cpmesu10
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. Protected: 351 CPME…. This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:. Meeting / Office Hours. Students wanting to sign up for office hours or set up a meeting, go here: Schedule a meeting with Calendly. FP Middle East Channel.
385 Arab Politics & Society - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/385-arab-politics-society
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. Protected: 385 Arab…. This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:. Meeting / Office Hours. Students wanting to sign up for office hours or set up a meeting, go here: Schedule a meeting with Calendly. FP Middle East Channel.
CV - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/cv
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. Download (PDF, 23KB). FP Middle East Channel. Global Voices Middle East. Saudi Woman's Blog. The Moor Next Door. Caveat Civis (Christian Davenport). Political Violence @ A Glance. The Monkey Cage @ WaPo.
Good coup, bad coup - MI Regression
http://andybeger.com/2015/07/10/good-coup-bad-coup
Conflict forecasting, data science. Good coup, bad coup. This post first appeared at Predictive Heuristics. Wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coups namely are those that lead to democratization, rather than outcomes one might more commonly associate with coups, like military rule, dictatorship, or instability. Elischer, although on the whole less optimistic about good coups than Noyes, writes:. By the way, I’m trying to consc...
319 Arab-Israeli Relations - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/319-airelations-2015
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. Dear 319 Students,. You will find the syllabus, access to course readings, handouts, and other course materials below. Office hours sign-up is to the right. 319 Arab-Israeli Relations Syllabus. Analytic Reading Report (ARR) Assignment. Meeting / Office Hours.
Teaching - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. 8220;Memorization is what we resort to when what we are learning makes no sense.”. 8220;Tell me and I’ll forget. Show me and I’ll remember. Involve me and I’ll understand.”. 600 International Affairs Statistics and Methods — site here. Meeting / Office Hours. The M...
Quantitative Methods in International Studies - Andrew Spath
http://andrewspath.com/teachings/isquant
Andrew Spath's Academic Website. SIS600: International Affairs Stats & Methods. 215 Contemp. Middle East. 306 Quantitative Methods in International Studies. 206 International Studies Research. 385 Arab Politics & Society. 351 CPME Summer 2010. This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:. Meeting / Office Hours. Students wanting to sign up for office hours or set up a meeting, go here: Schedule a meeting with Calendly. FP Middle East Channel. Global Voices Middle East.
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Predictive Heuristics | Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U.
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Taking stock of the risk of coups d’etat in 2017. January 27, 2017. First, this project is very much inspired by and in may ways a continuation of Jay Ulfelder’s coup forecasts for 2012-2015 ( 2012. It also draws on previous work Mike Ward, Cassy Dorff, and I have done on forecasting irregular leadership changes, which include coups, but also other mechanisms of sudden leader change. Who define coup attempts as. There aren’t any real surprises in the list of high risk cou...
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