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asecondmouse | Reflections on social science, politics and education | asecondmouse.wordpress.com Reviews
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Reflections on social science, politics and education
asecondmouse.wordpress.com
The Mouse Goes Into Business [1] | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2014/10/11/the-mouse-goes-into-business-1
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Mr Bernanke’s mortgage. A hundred or so questions to think about asking at an academic job interview →. The Mouse Goes Into Business [1]. October 11, 2014. For starters, let me apologize to the various followers of this blog for the absence of posts over the past six months but, well, we’ve been more than a little busy, between the development of a new event coder. Embedded in a real-time event generation system. Didn’t get written [yet]…. Furthermor...
July | 2015 | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2015/07
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Monthly Archives: July 2015. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? July 9, 2015. As a Will Rogers Democrat [1], I’ve been watching with delight as Donald Trump states, re-states, and then doubles-down on statements that seem almost perfectly designed to offend the median voter and put other Republican presidential hopefuls now a not insignificant … Continue reading →. Seven reflections on Trump, Sanders and the crisis of bozo capitalism.
Seven reasons I probably can’t help you get my open source software running on your computer | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2015/04/13/seven-reasons-why-i-probably-cant-help-you-to-get-my-open-source-software-running-on-your-computer
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Seven observations on the newly released ICEWS data. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? Seven reasons I probably can’t help you get my open source software running on your computer. April 13, 2015. Have a programmer eviscerated by a velociraptor, crushed in a trash compactor, or reduced to Valyrian dragon chow.[1] All of these are sure crowd-pleasers. 1 No two research computers are identical. To run the software. I’ve know...Running...
Mr. Bernanke’s mortgage | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2014/10/04/mr-bernankes-mortgage
Reflections on social science, politics and education. The legal status of event data. The Mouse Goes Into Business [1] →. Mr Bernanke’s mortgage. October 4, 2014. This started as a footnote to a long-overdue blog posting which updates my situation. As sometimes happens with [my] footnotes, it got rather out of control [1], but as too often doesn’t happen with [my] blog entries, it actually got finished. So this is the appetizer; main course to follow fairly soon.]. But that is only what you. You are see...
Seven observations on the newly released ICEWS data | asecondmouse
https://asecondmouse.wordpress.com/2015/03/30/seven-observations-on-the-newly-released-icews-data
Reflections on social science, politics and education. The Mouse Goes Into Business [2]. Seven reasons I probably can’t help you get my open source software running on your computer →. Seven observations on the newly released ICEWS data. March 30, 2015. Before we get to the topic of the post, the usual set of apologies about the absence of recent postings starting with that Duke Nukem Forever. Late in the afternoon on Friday, 27 March, with Jay Ulfelder probably responsible for first spotting it. There a...
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The right kind of variance | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 6, 2014. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance. So sometimes it’s good to have co...Coding ...
Games on networks, with application to Thai politics | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/19/games-on-networks-with-application-to-thai-politics
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 19, 2013. Games on networks, with application to Thai politics. The top rug shows the different parties that are in power in Thailand during the observation period, with markers for changes in power. The bottom plot shows conflictual events in Thailand from 1998 on. Six dead in shootout in Thai south. Thailand begins monitoring of Facebook, YouTube and LINE. Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
July | 2014 | Disonancias
https://jrjoel.wordpress.com/2014/07
Blog de Joel Flores-Mariscal. Posted by Joel FM. Asymp; Leave a comment. XXVII Festival Cultural de la Toltequidad. Posted by Joel FM. Asymp; Leave a comment. Tlen ki ijtoa mo yolotl ( Qué dice tu corazón? No es que quiera hacerle al hipster, pero me gustaría poder entregar mi tesis xon formato tipo maq de escribir https:/ t.co/jM8jTRh5ic. Smallest sliver of time yet measured sees electrons fleeing atom bit.ly/2fIdBvS. Our analysis did not stand up to the job : @ drjennings. El periodista @ alvaro delgado.
Phil Arena: January 2014
http://fparena.blogspot.com/2014_01_01_archive.html
Insightful commentary on international conflict and the scholarly study thereof. Or laughably poor analysis of matters that deserve to be taken more seriously. Your call. Thursday, January 30, 2014. War is Mostly in the Error Term, But That's Okay. Erik Gartzkes 1999 article War is in the Error Term. Is often described as a critique of Fearon 1995s Rationalist Explanations for War. Links to this post. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Not to be confused with the Phillips Arena. Or the Philippine Arena. The bur...
Phil Arena: May 2014
http://fparena.blogspot.com/2014_05_01_archive.html
Insightful commentary on international conflict and the scholarly study thereof. Or laughably poor analysis of matters that deserve to be taken more seriously. Your call. No posts. Show all posts. No posts. Show all posts. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Not to be confused with the Phillips Arena. Or the Philippine Arena. View my complete profile. Trump’s Threat To American Greatness. Artisanal Democracy Data: A Quick and Easy Way of Extending the Unified Democracy Scores. Active Learning in PS. Zombies, Fem...
Prediction versus Explanation? | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/31/prediction-versus-explanation
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 31, 2013. Is an early warning system designed to help US policy analysts predict a variety of international crises. This project was created at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in 2007. Gated) described the early phase of the project in 2010, including assessments of its accuracy, and a WIRED article in 2011 criticized ICEWS. For missing the Arab Spring–at a time when the project was only focused on Asia. In an article ( here for now. In Foreign Policy,.
Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/01/16/political-parties-the-eurozone-crisis-and-icews-data
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. January 16, 2014. Political Parties, the Eurozone Crisis, and ICEWS Data. Large-scale event data based on worldwide media reports already help us to explain and forecast crises events. Such as civil wars or insurgencies. But the millions of data points provided by ICEWS or GDELT. Are a treasure trove for social scientists interested in all kinds of topics, whether they involve violence or not. And the Comparative Manifestos Project. I use the ICEWS event data to analyze the way...
cassyld | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/author/cassyld
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. Civilian Victimization and Social Networks. September 9, 2014. This question eventually led me to co-organize a national survey in Mexico in July 2012, with my colleague Sandra Ley Gutierrez, focusing on the consequences of criminal victimization. In this survey, I collected original data on 1,000 kinship networks as a way to capture social networks at the individual level. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.
Uncategorized | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/category/uncategorized
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. A primer on web scraping with R. October 28, 2014. The current data situation on the Web. Not pictured: landing net R. Image from commons.wikimedia.org. This is a guest post by Simon Munzert, PhD student at the University of Konstanz, who is currently on a visit at the Lab. And its potential for so. Still, during my short stay at the Lab as a visiting scholar I had the opportunity to give a little introduction to various web scraping techniques using R. August 27, 2014. Collabo...
实验室文章：迈向冲突预测的新时代 | Predictive Heuristics
https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/08/27/实验室文章：迈向冲突预测的新时代
Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. August 27, 2014. 为了呈现冲突研究在过去几年的重大进展，本文重新检视Fearon and Laitin (2003)这份奠定冲突研究基础的文献，从而比较和凸显预测分析在近几年的进展。 站在修正Fearon and Laitin的基础上，我们利用年度层次以下的事件时间解析数据来建构冲突预测模型，并且运用层级模型(hierarchical model)来追踪估计变量在不同国家属性群集中的变化。 在左边的红线表示负向的错误预测(false negative)，但在右边白色表示正向的错误预测(false positive)，一个高配适度的预测应该会有比较多的红色部分 事件发生 在图的右侧。 Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Which has our conflict forecasts. Here are our members. Good coup, bad coup.
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A Second Look
Behind the scenes of Cville's contemporary art space. Wednesday, December 14, 2011. Second Street Gallery, a nonprofit, contemporary gallery,. Is seeking a part time Membership and Development Associate. What we are looking for. 8226; Experience with database and spreadsheet applications. 8226; Experience with Macs. 8226; Good interpersonal skills – on the phone and in person. 8226; Good communication skills. 8226; Discretion – you will be dealing with confidential information. Previous experience in a n...
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Services For The Busy Caretaker. Services For Parents With Children With Special Needs. Services For The Busy Professional And Their Families. Errand Services For Seniors. Ndash; Services For The Busy Caretaker. Ndash; Services For Parents With Children With Special Needs. Ndash; Services For The Busy Professional And Their Families. Ndash; Errand Services For Seniors. Ndash; How We Work. Ndash; Staff Bios. Ndash; Our Guarantee. Sign up for our Newsletter *. CHILDREN WITH SPECIAL NEEDS. While you’r...
A Second Miracle
Jace was the miracle that taught us all how precious the life of a child truly is. Thursday, April 4, 2013. March Against Child Abuse Tulsa, OK April 22. Why will I March Against Child Abuse? It’s really easy to say we love children. It’s really simple to say we don’t want children to get hurt. No one is shocked that good people don’t think those that can’t protect themselves should be protected. For more information about this event visit:. Thursday, April 19, 2012. Leslie's Victim Impact Statement.
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asecondmouse | Reflections on social science, politics and education
Reflections on social science, politics and education. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? July 9, 2015. As a Will Rogers Democrat [1], I’ve been watching with delight as Donald Trump states, re-states, and then doubles-down on statements that seem almost perfectly designed to offend the median voter. And put other Republican presidential hopefuls now a not insignificant percentage of the entire party in uncomfortable positions. The whole thing is almost too good to be true. Seem almost o...
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Asecondoftruth's Blog | "The truth is always exciting, speak it. Life is dull without it."
The truth is always exciting, speak it. Life is dull without it. Support My Favorite Cause. January 29, 2013. My Fight For Fit. Like most people after the New Year, I made a resolution to eat better and work out a little more. Sound cliche? And have slowly become obsessed. They specialize in organic products and have offerings ranging from quinoa to dried fruit to pancake mixes. The prices are extremely reasonable and I got my order in 2 days! What’s In My Fridge:. High Fiber Whole Grain English Muffins.
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