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Decision-Making Under Severe UncertaintyHome page of Moshe Sniedovich
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Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty | decision-making.moshe-online.com Reviews
https://decision-making.moshe-online.com
Home page of Moshe Sniedovich
decision-making.moshe-online.com
Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/faqs.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:08:18 MST. This web site contains material that I developed/collected, over the past few years, as part of my campaign to contain the spread of Info-Gap decision theory. If this is your first visit to my site I should point out that I launched this campaign at the end of 2006. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time!
Black Swans
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/swan.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Last modified: Friday, 21-Aug-2015 18:57:27 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. Added a review report on Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. July 27, 2011.
Counterfeit Coin Problem
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/coin.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Counterfeit Coin Problem. Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:08:18 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. November 19, 2011. November 17, 2011. November 8, 2011.
Alex Rubinov Memorial Lecture 2011
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/ballarat.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. From time to time I give "special' lectures, usually on a "soft" topic, related to the use of mathematics in decision-making. This is a challenging task, as these lectures are supposed to be completely "math-free". Black Box Lecture Series 2012. I was invited by Defence Science and Technology Organisation. DSTO) at Melbourne, to give a lecture (June 20, 2012) in their Black Box Lecture Series. You can download the PDF file of the lecture.
New Nostradamuses
http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/nostradamus.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. Added a review report on Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. November 19, 2011. November 17, 2011. November 8, 2011. Added a...
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Mighty Maximin
http://maximin.moshe-online.com/index.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Mighty Maximin and worst-case analysis. Last modified: Friday, 30-May-2014 17:38:41 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. November 19, 2011. November 17, 2011. June 2...
Reviews of Info-Gap Publications
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/reviews/review_34.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Reviews of publications on Info-Gap decision theory. Posted: December 10, 2011; Last update: December 13, 2011). Nicola Ranger, Antony Millner, Simon Dietz, Sam Fankhauser, Ana Lopez and Giovanni Ruta. Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. With Technical Annexes by Nicola Ranger, Antony Millner, Ana Lopez, Giovanni Ruta and Alice Hardiman. Policy brief, September 2010. Summary characteristics of a set of standard decision methods&#...
Reviews of Info-Gap Publications
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/reviews/review_33.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Reviews of publications on Info-Gap decision theory. Posted: November 19, 2011). Brendan A. Wintle, Sarah A. Bekessy, David A. Keith, Brian W. van Wilgen, Mar Cabeza, Boris Schroder, Silvia B. Carvalho, Alessandra Falcucci, Luigi Maiorano, Tracey J. Regan, Carlo Rondinini, Luigi Boitani and Hugh P. Possingham. Ecological economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change. I discovered a reference to this article in the No...
Reviews of Info-Gap Publications
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/reviews/review_32.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Reviews of publications on Info-Gap decision theory. Posted: June 25, 2011). Patrick Hildebrandt and Thomas Knoke. Investment decisions under uncertainty - - A methodological review on forest science studies. Forest Policy and Economics. 13 (2011) 1 15. Uncertainty Diversification, Expected utility, Mean-variance, Option pricing, Stochastic dominance, Downside risk. Lower partial moment, Information-gap decision theory, Robust optimisation.
Prophet
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/prophet.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. You can't be a prophet in your own land! Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:02:34 MST. Over the past four years - as part of my Info-Gap Campaign. To contain the spread of Info-Gap decision theory in Australia - I exposed the serious fundamental flaws afflicting info-gap decision theory. I gave numerous lectures. On this subject in Australia and overseas and have written a number of articles. And the picture is complete. So, on this page I...
A report to ACERA
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/acera.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. A Report to ACERA. On November 25, 2011, I submitted a 200-page report, entitled Info-gap decision theory: a perspective from the Land of the Black Swan. To the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis ( ACERA. On this page I provide a link to this report. And I discuss the report's role in my Campaign. To contain the spread of info-gap decision theory in Australia. So, as the envisaged completion date of my Campaign. I should stress...
Guided Tour of Info-Gap decision theory
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/guided_tour.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Tutorial: A Guided Tour of Info-Gap's Robustness Analysis and some of its Fundamental Flaws. Last modified: Sunday, 31-May-2009 17:15:35 MST. G'day and welcome to our guided tour of Info-Gap's Robustness Analysis:. This short tutorial is a supplement to my analysis of Info-Gap decision theory. Very broadly, the objective here is to make vivid how Info-Gap's blatant violation of the universally accepted Garbage In - Garbage Out. The argument i...
The Mobile Radius of Stability Theorem
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/mobile_radius_theorem.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Mobile Radius of Stability Theorem. Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:02:34 MST. Some info-gap scholars do a lot of traveling. Apparently, on the road they do not have easy access to my Maximin Theorem. Just in case you have not encountered this theorem before, I add parenthetically that this theorem states that info-gap's robustness model is a simple instance of Wald's famous Maximin model. We read this (Ben-Haim 2010, page 9):.
Info-Gap Campaign
http://info-gap.moshe-online.com/csiro.html
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The CSIRO Report (Keith Hayes, 2011). Visitors interested in this topic should also be interested in my 200-page report to ACERA. This page is dedicated to a discussion of the following important recent publication:. Hayes KR (2011). Uncertainty and Uncertainty Analysis Methods. Final report for the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA),. CSIRO Division of Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics,. Hobart, Australia,. Is th...
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decision-making.moshe-online.com
Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty
The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. This web site contains material that I have developed/collected, over the past few years, as part of my campaign to contain the spread of Info-Gap decision theory. If this is your first visit to my site take note that I launched this campaign at the end of 2006. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. Added ...
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Research Group: Contextualized Decision Making. In the News: Research Group member Mandy Hütter receives Heinz Maier-Leibnitz Prize 2017. The Research Unit Contextualized Decision Making. The project aims at formally modeling the processes of knowledge acquisition and knowledge application in memory-based decisions. First, this will dispense with the oversimplified notion of a dichotomy between rule-based or exemplar-based learning strategies. Second, working memory load will be investigated as a...The p...
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