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Example 3: Rare events | Viva la Voodoo!

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Our mission is to contain the spread of voodoo decision theories in Australia and the UK. Example 1: Applied Alchemy. Example 2: lamppost tricks. Example 3: Rare events. Example 4: No Man’s Land. New under the sun. Too good to be true. Example 3: Rare events. Terms such as rare events. And it is precisely because such events are rare. That said, a particularly interesting point is raised by the following question:. Would rare events be located near the best estimate, or at a significant distance from it?

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Example 2: lamppost tricks | Viva la Voodoo!

https://vivalavoodoo.wordpress.com/more/examples/example-2-lamp-post-trick

Our mission is to contain the spread of voodoo decision theories in Australia and the UK. Example 1: Applied Alchemy. Example 2: lamppost tricks. Example 3: Rare events. Example 4: No Man’s Land. New under the sun. Too good to be true. Example 2: lamppost tricks. Building on the reasoning underlying the “lamp post trick”, which restricts a search for a lost item to the area illuminated by a lamp post, it is apparently as easy to simplify the task of dealing with severe uncertainty. Get every new post del...

decision-making.moshe-online.com

Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty

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The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:08:18 MST. This web site contains material that I developed/collected, over the past few years, as part of my campaign to contain the spread of Info-Gap decision theory. If this is your first visit to my site I should point out that I launched this campaign at the end of 2006. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time!

decision-making.moshe-online.com

Black Swans

http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/swan.html

The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. Last modified: Friday, 21-Aug-2015 18:57:27 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. Added a review report on Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. July 27, 2011.

decision-making.moshe-online.com

Counterfeit Coin Problem

http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/coin.html

The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Counterfeit Coin Problem. Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:08:18 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. November 19, 2011. November 17, 2011. November 8, 2011.

decision-making.moshe-online.com

Alex Rubinov Memorial Lecture 2011

http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/ballarat.html

The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. From time to time I give "special' lectures, usually on a "soft" topic, related to the use of mathematics in decision-making. This is a challenging task, as these lectures are supposed to be completely "math-free". Black Box Lecture Series 2012. I was invited by Defence Science and Technology Organisation. DSTO) at Melbourne, to give a lecture (June 20, 2012) in their Black Box Lecture Series. You can download the PDF file of the lecture.

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Resources | Fooled by Robustness

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A perspective from the Land of the Black Swan and No Worries. Garbage In Garbage Out. More Topics …. Is based on material that I posted on my website. Since the end of 2006 in connection with my campaign to contain the spread of info-gap decision theory. Should you need more technical details on the topic, you may find the following links useful:. Reviews of info-gap publications. FAQs about info-gap decision theory. Second opinion on info-gap decision theory. Journal of Risk Finance,.

decision-making.moshe-online.com

The Power of the Written Word

http://decision-making.moshe-online.com/power_of_the_word.html

The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Power of the (Peer-Reviewed) Word. This is an advanced draft) Last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2011 13:07:35 MST. For some reason, my presentation On The Power of the (Peer-Reviewed) Word. At the ASOR Recent Advances in Operations Research 2011 meeting. Which I posted on this website, has attracted an unusually large number of visitors. In view of this extraordinary response, I decided to launch a blog on this clearly intriguing topic. Envir...

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Mighty Maximin

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The Spin Stops Here! Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty. The Mighty Maximin and worst-case analysis. Last modified: Friday, 30-May-2014 17:38:41 MST. Have you purchased a copy of my brand new book Dynamic Programming: Foundations and Principles. If not, now is the right time! Have you read the preview of my forthcoming book Foolded by Robustness: A Perspective from Down Under - the Land of the Black Swan. If not, now is the right time! December 11, 2011. November 19, 2011. November 17, 2011. June 2...