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Introduction to Bayesian Thinking

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

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Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

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Introduction to Bayesian Thinking | learnbayes.blogspot.com Reviews

https://learnbayes.blogspot.com

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

INTERNAL PAGES

learnbayes.blogspot.com

1

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: October 2007

http://learnbayes.blogspot.com/2007_10_01_archive.html

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Tuesday, October 30, 2007. Concluding our baseball example, recall that we observed the home run rates for 20 players in the month of April and we were interested in predicting their home run rates for the next month. Since we have collected data for both April and May, we can check the accuracy of three prediction methods. 2 A second method, which we called the "pooled" method, predicts each player's home run rate by the pooled home run rate for all 20 players in April.

2

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: October 2008

http://learnbayes.blogspot.com/2008_10_01_archive.html

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

3

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: September 2007

http://learnbayes.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Wednesday, September 26, 2007. Inferences for Gamma Sampling Problem. In the previous post, I considered the problem of modeling lengths of cell phone calls. Here we focus on several types of inferences and predictions that might be of interest. Y=c(12.2,.9,.8,5.3,2,1.2,1.2,1,.3,1.8,3.1,2.8). For (i in 1:n) val=val dgamma(data[i],shape=a,scale=mu/a,log=TRUE). Mycontour(gamma.sampling.post,c(-1.5,1.5,0,3),y). Title(main="POSTERIOR OF (LOG ALPHA, LOG MU)",xlab="log alpha",.

4

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: Probit modeling via MCMCpack

http://learnbayes.blogspot.com/2007/12/probit-modeling-via-mcmcpack.html

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Saturday, December 1, 2007. Probit modeling via MCMCpack. I thought briefly about doing a survey of Bayesian R packages in my book. I'm sure a comparative survey would be helpful to many users, but it is difficult to cover all of the packages in any depth in a 30 page chapter. Also, since packages are evolving so fast, much of what I could say would quickly be out of date. Fit = MCMCprobit(model, data, burnin, mcmc, thin, b0, B0). Data: is the data frame that is used.

5

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: Probit Modeling

http://learnbayes.blogspot.com/2007/12/probit-modeling.html

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Saturday, December 1, 2007. I should have put more prior modeling in my Bayesian R book. One of the obvious advantages of the Bayesian approach is the ability to incorporate prior information. I'll illustrate the use of informative priors in a simple setting - binary regression modeling with a probit link where one has prior information about the regression vector. Prob(y=1) = Phi(beta0 beta1 (PrecalculusGrade) beta2 (ACT). Suppose that the regression vector beta = (bet...

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Solutions | Exercises from Jim Albert’s “Bayesian Computation with R” | Page 2

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Exercises from Jim Albert’s “Bayesian Computation with R”. Bayesian analysis of national suicide data. December 23, 2008. I was immediately skeptical, especially when I read that three of the four counties with higher rates were in Alaska, and the fourth was in the desert all locations one would expect to be sparsely populated. It seemed to be a classic case of failing to consider the effect of sample size (Andrew Gelman provides a nice example of this phenomenon in section 2.8 of. December 1, 2008.

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Introduction to Bayesian Thinking

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

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Bayes: the science of evidence. Welcome to learnbayes.org! In addition, we aim to support a community of users of Bayesian methods. If you have questions about the theory of Bayesian methods, or about how to apply a particular method, ask here!

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Home

Bayes: the science of evidence. Welcome to learnbayes.org! In addition, we aim to support a community of users of Bayesian methods. If you have questions about the theory of Bayesian methods, or about how to apply a particular method, ask here!

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Bayesian Thinking | Just another WordPress.com weblog

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Sale on Bayesian Computation with R. April 19, 2017. Amazon currently is selling the 2nd edition of Bayesian Computation with R for $14.92 — list price is $59.95. The package LearnBayes accompanies this text. Simple Example of Bayesian Learning using LearnBayes. July 31, 2016. Okay, suppose we are interested in estimating a binomial proportion p. My prior for p is beta(3, 10) and I take a sample of size 10, observing 7 successes and 3 failures. Defining the log posterior.

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