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Bayesian Thinking | Just another WordPress.com weblog

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http://learnbayes.wordpress.com/

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Bayesian Thinking | Just another WordPress.com weblog | learnbayes.wordpress.com Reviews

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1

Graphical elicitation of a beta prior | Bayesian Thinking

https://learnbayes.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/graphical-elicitation-of-a-beta-prior

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Graphical elicitation of a beta prior. Graphical elicitation of a beta prior. December 6, 2011. My students are doing a project where they have to elicit a beta prior for a proportion. This is a difficult task and any tools to make this process a little easier are helpful. Here is the scrip. Is a movie that shows the sliders in action. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Enter your comment here. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:. Address never made public).

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Cell phone story — part 2 | Bayesian Thinking

https://learnbayes.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/cell-phone-story-part-2

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Cell phone story — part 2. Cell phone story — part 2. October 3, 2011. It is relatively easy to set up a Gibbs sampling algorithm for the normal sampling problem when independent priors (of the conjugate type) are assigned to the mean and precision. Here we outline how to do this on R. We start with an expression for the joint posterior of the mean. Here S is the sum of squares of the observations about the mean.). Has a gamma form where the shape is given by. A1 = a n/2.

3

Modeling fire alarm counts | Bayesian Thinking

https://learnbayes.wordpress.com/2011/10/30/modeling-fire-alarm-counts

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Model checking and comparison. Modeling fire alarm counts. Modeling fire alarm counts. October 30, 2011. Sorry for the long delay since my last post. It seems that one needs to keep a regular posting pattern, say several days a week. to keep this blog active. We’re now talking about comparing models by Bayes factors. To motivate the discussion of plausible models, I found the following website. Suppose we observe the fire call counts. Once we decide on several plausible...

4

Cell phone story — part 3 | Bayesian Thinking

https://learnbayes.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/cell-phone-story-part-3

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Cell phone story — part 3. Cell phone story — part 3. October 5, 2011. After talking about this problem in class on Monday, I realized that we don’t understand the texting patterns of undergraduates very well. So I’m reluctant to specify an informative prior in this situation for the simple reason that I don’t understand this that well. So I’m going to illustrate using bugs to fit this model using a vague prior. ModelString = ”. For( i in 1:n ){. Y[i] dnorm( mu, P ).

5

Three Sampling Models for Fire Calls | Bayesian Thinking

https://learnbayes.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/three-sampling-models-for-fire-calls

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Model checking and comparison. Three Sampling Models for Fire Calls. Three Sampling Models for Fire Calls. October 31, 2011. Continuing our example, suppose our prior beliefs about the mean count of fire calls. Is Gamma(280, 4). (Essentially this says that our prior guess at. Is 70 and the prior standard deviation is about 4.2.) But we’re unsure about the sampling model — it could be (M1) exponential(. Or (M3) normal with mean. And standard deviation 12. You are comment...

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www-math.bgsu.edu www-math.bgsu.edu

Jim Albert's Home Page

http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert

Jim Albert, Professor. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Bowling Green State University. Analyzing Baseball with R. Bayesian Computation with R. Teaching Statistics Using Baseball. Workshop Statistics: Discovery with Data, A Bayesian Approach. Data Analysis and Probability for Teachers. Bayesian Computation Using Minitab. Exploring Baseball with R. Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Statistical Graphics 2013 Blog. Office: 407 Math Science. R Packages on Github. Powered by Type and Grids.

gobayes.blogspot.com gobayes.blogspot.com

The Bayesian Sleuth: February 2014

http://gobayes.blogspot.com/2014_02_01_archive.html

Wednesday, February 5, 2014. Blogs to look at. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Blogs to look at. View my complete profile. Simple template. Template images by luoman.

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The Bayesian Sleuth: Blogs to look at

http://gobayes.blogspot.com/2014/02/blogs-to-look-at.html

Wednesday, February 5, 2014. Blogs to look at. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Blogs to look at. View my complete profile. Simple template. Template images by luoman.

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Introduction to Bayesian Thinking

Introduction to Bayesian Thinking. Friday, October 31, 2008. How Many Electoral Votes will Obama Get? Yesterday Chris Rump at BGSU gave an interesting presentation about simulating the 2008 Presidential Election. He was explaining the methodology used by Nate Silver in the fivethirtyeight.com site. Here is a relatively simple Bayesian approach for estimating the number of electoral votes that Barack Obama will get in the election on Tuesday. PM 235 p.O 255 (1-p.M - p.O) 10. 1 Alabama 58 36 1.000 9. 4 Ark...

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Bayes: the science of evidence. Welcome to learnbayes.org! In addition, we aim to support a community of users of Bayesian methods. If you have questions about the theory of Bayesian methods, or about how to apply a particular method, ask here!

learnbayes.org learnbayes.org

Home

Bayes: the science of evidence. Welcome to learnbayes.org! In addition, we aim to support a community of users of Bayesian methods. If you have questions about the theory of Bayesian methods, or about how to apply a particular method, ask here!

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Bayesian Thinking | Just another WordPress.com weblog

Just another WordPress.com weblog. Sale on Bayesian Computation with R. April 19, 2017. Amazon currently is selling the 2nd edition of Bayesian Computation with R for $14.92 — list price is $59.95. The package LearnBayes accompanies this text. Simple Example of Bayesian Learning using LearnBayes. July 31, 2016. Okay, suppose we are interested in estimating a binomial proportion p. My prior for p is beta(3, 10) and I take a sample of size 10, observing 7 successes and 3 failures. Defining the log posterior.

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