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Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008_08_01_archive.html
Macro Trader Diary: August 2008. Wednesday, 13 August 2008. Coke is still it. If you’re more of a contrarian than a momentum guy, as I used to be, the thing that would kill you, time and time again was getting in early. You’d lose some, you’d make some more, and then you’d give it all back, betting that the momo guys were late and wrong. So I bet half my gains for the year – my stop was just shy of an 18% drawdown. What I was looking to do was to double my gains – to get to 70% up. They stop ordering or ...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008/08/thin-blue-line.html
Macro Trader Diary: The Thin Blue Line. Tuesday, 5 August 2008. The Thin Blue Line. 8216;It’s a fine line between clever and stupid’ – Nigel Tuffnel, Spinal Tap. It suggests that people susceptible are incredibly suggestible, and that once their mind is made up, they find it very hard to change course. Even if it becomes obvious that the pay-off from what they’re doing has disappeared. Which brings me neatly back to the market. There is plenty of scope for an ironic outcome from here. With the pa...What ...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008_06_01_archive.html
Macro Trader Diary: June 2008. Friday, 27 June 2008. Two days watching sport in the sun Tuesday and Wednesday finally coddled my brains – my body temperature started yo-yoing – I had chills and fever. And not in a good way. Then yesterday I slept for 16 hours, and I was in such bad shape when I woke up I couldn’t even eat a curry. That got my wife properly worried. If the Fed does not control global liquidity, then global liquidity will control the Fed. That’s genuinely dangerous, in my book. I...It̵...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008_07_01_archive.html
Macro Trader Diary: July 2008. Wednesday, 30 July 2008. Marilyn is an unlikely pin-up. Marilyn von Savant that is. She writes a syndicated agony aunt column in the US, which she’s done since 1986. But her real claim to fame was that she was for many years recognised in the Guinness book of records as having the highest IQ ever recorded – 242. So are you best served sticking or switching to win the car? But here’s a new one; I think Hungary, an oil importer, will collapse if oil prices continue to f...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008/08/coke-is-still-it.html
Macro Trader Diary: Coke is still it. Wednesday, 13 August 2008. Coke is still it. If you’re more of a contrarian than a momentum guy, as I used to be, the thing that would kill you, time and time again was getting in early. You’d lose some, you’d make some more, and then you’d give it all back, betting that the momo guys were late and wrong. So I bet half my gains for the year – my stop was just shy of an 18% drawdown. What I was looking to do was to double my gains – to get to 70% up. They stop orderin...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008/08/2058.html
Macro Trader Diary: 2058. Monday, 11 August 2008. Why do you have to work so late? I’m not working. Well, the screen is on and you’re reading a book that’s clearly not a novel. Er…. That’s not an unusual conversation chez Garran. Here’s a new one; you just said that you didn’t trade last month, but you’ve been watching the screen the whole time. Er yes, er, sorry. Now I’ve tried out fifty ways to make money. From fieldwork to working a field. But out of all of them, the thing I’ve rea...And I enjoyed it ...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008_04_01_archive.html
Macro Trader Diary: April 2008. Wednesday, 30 April 2008. Running your own money from home is great. Set up in the garden, a glass of rosà on a sunny day, reading and writing about markets, - it’s a good way to be spending time. Now that is intriguing. It’s certainly not consensus. And it’s the kind of scuttlebutt that shows up later in the data. It also supports some of the leading indicators – such as business confidence – that have been coming out much weaker than t...Now, of course, the German Mittel...
macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com
Macro Trader Diary
http://macrotraderdiary.blogspot.com/2008_05_01_archive.html
Macro Trader Diary: May 2008. Thursday, 29 May 2008. Ever had the experience? You start talking on a topic – something that you know is the bomb – it’s got eclectic details, it puts together facts that everybody knows, or feels that they know – but it puts them together in a different order. It makes you look at the world backwards. I get that feeling a lot these days – whenever I talk about social moods. So, the topic is this – mood – the mood that folks are in - determines everything. But this is where...
