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George Orwell on ‘history is written by the winners’ | Macro Exposure
http://macroexposure.com/2014/02/06/george-orwell-on-history-is-written-by-the-winners
Economics, Politics and Finance. George Orwell on ‘history is written by the winners’. Posted by Simon Hinrichsen. On February 6, 2014. Here is George Orwell. Writing in February, 1944. As an economic historian(ish, to be) this is spot on, so here is me copy-pasting:. Even if Franco is overthrown, what kind of records will the future historian have to go upon? For the purposes of a future historian, did those raids happen, or didn’t they? Did Trotsky plot with the Nazis? Does Europe welcome the New Order?
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A theory on China | Macro Exposure
http://macroexposure.com/2014/04/10/a-theory-on-china
Economics, Politics and Finance. A theory on China. Posted by Simon Hinrichsen. On April 10, 2014. Looking at credit charts makes you a China bear, and here is the one that usually scares people*. It is a scary chart! Here is one with EMs ranked,. As always data is different from database to database! So are we going that way? My bet is no. While short-term external debt has risen in dollars, as a percentage of GDP it has not (red line). This means that it is a very different beast we’re dealin...My theo...
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Bank of England data, 1696-2014 | Macro Exposure
http://macroexposure.com/2015/03/25/bank-of-england-data-1696-2014
Economics, Politics and Finance. Bank of England data, 1696-2014. Posted by Simon Hinrichsen. On March 25, 2015. The Bank of England has put out some cool balance sheet data. It would have been better to have this a year ago ( much of my thesis is estimating it between 1797-1821. But always nice to get confirmation that you weren’t really that far off (slightly different methodology regarding groupings, their dataset is better, etc.). Well not so much, actually. You can find much more here:. My reading l...
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How to prevent fraud at banks | Macro Exposure
http://macroexposure.com/2013/10/26/how-to-prevent-fraud-at-banks
Economics, Politics and Finance. How to prevent fraud at banks. Posted by Simon Hinrichsen. On October 26, 2013. I was assigned a paper on the Shanxi Banks in the late Qing dynasty in China, and how they became the banking centre of their time. You can read the paper here. But I think it is worth flagging why they were so effective in preventing fraud. From the abstract:. Skin in the game? Let’s continue…. Of the enforcement…. No, Robert E. Hall, that’s not actually the only problem. A theory on China.