judgmentanddecisionmaking11.blogspot.com
Chapter 11. Dynamic decisions and high stakes.
Chapter 11. Dynamic decisions and high stakes. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). The Water Purification Plant (discussed in Chapter 11). Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page). The MIT Beer Game.
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Chapter 12. Risk.
Chapter 12. Risk. Friday, 12 June 2009. Gigerenzer et al: What health statistics really mean. In Scientific American Mind (this article also relates to some of the Chapter 3 material). Posted by David Hardman. Thursday, 29 January 2009. Proportion dominance and the great flu pandemic. The book referred to above is. Living with Enza: the forgotten story of Britain and the Great Flu Pandemic of 1918. By Mark Honigsbaum (Macmillan, £15.99). Posted by David Hardman. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom).
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Chapter 15. Intuition, reflection, and the brain.
Chapter 15. Intuition, reflection, and the brain. Thursday, 21 January 2010. How ethical are ethicists? Much recent research conducted by psychologists on the topic of moral judgment has examined the role of intuitions, specifically emotion-driven intuitions, as drivers of judgment. Reasoning is hypothesised to play little role in moral judgement, except to rationalise what has already been decided. But what about people who study ethics for a living? Do they learn to behave in a more ethical fashion?
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Chapter 2. The nature and analysis of judgment
Chapter 2. The nature and analysis of judgment. Sunday, 1 March 2009. 2008 Psych Review: Dougherty et al critique of fast and frugal heuristics. In 2008, Volume 1 of. Dougherty et al argue as follows. In particular, the computation of cue validities would require recording the co-occurrence of a target variable and the. Of information (in addition to other co-occurences). However, evidence indicates that people are more sensitive to positive occurrences than to negative ones. GHG responded by reiterating...
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Chapter 3. Judging probability and frequency.
Chapter 3. Judging probability and frequency. There is an error in Figure 3.3. This is the tree diagram representing Eddy's (1982) medical problem. For the branch representing P(Negative Cancer) the probability should be 0.208, NOT 0.028. Accordingly, the number at the rightmost end of the branch should be 0.0028, NOT 0.00028. This does not affect the answer to the problem stated in the text, which remains 0.077. My thanks to Chloe Turner (one of my students) for pointing this out. Sunday, 7 June 2009.
judgmentanddecisionmaking4.blogspot.com
Chapter 4. Judgment distortions.
Chapter 4. Judgment distortions. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Subscribe To Chapter 4: Judgment distortions. Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page).
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Chapter 5. Evidence and arguments.
Chapter 5. Evidence and arguments. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Subscribe To Chapter 5: Evidence and arguments. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page).
judgmentanddecisionmaking6.blogspot.com
Chapter 6. Covariation, causation, counterfactuals
Chapter 6. Covariation, causation, counterfactuals. Page 63 contains a footnote where I give the formula for the phi coefficient. Unfortunately, the denominator mixes up products and sums, so is incorrect. The correct formula should be:. SQRT [(a b) x (c d) x (a c) x (b d)]. I'm grateful to John van den Bercken for pointing this out. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Subscribe To Chapter 6: Covariation, causation, counterfactuals.
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Chapter 7. Decisions under risk and uncertainty.
Chapter 7. Decisions under risk and uncertainty. Sunday, 21 June 2009. Decision making from experience. Probabilities have shown similar results. However, according to a new study by Liat Hadar and Craig Fox (2009), a single theory may suffice for both described and experienced decisions. They suggest that the results from the two types of decision may diverge when there is an. Judgment and Decision Making, 4 (4). Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., and Erev, I. (2004). Decisio...Saturday, 13 June 2009.
judgmentanddecisionmaking8.blogspot.com
Chapter 8. Preference and choice.
Chapter 8. Preference and choice. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page). Dan Ariely describes a field study into the endowment effect. The MPG (miles per gallon) illusion, explained by Jack Soll and Richard Larrick.
judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com
Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.
Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...
