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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...

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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. | judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com Reviews
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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...
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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. | judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com Reviews

https://judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...

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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.: Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist

http://www.judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com/2009/06/humans-prefer-cockiness-to-expertise.html

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Wednesday, 10 June 2009. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist. Posted by David Hardman. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Optimism and economic choice, explained by Manju Puri and David Robinson. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 J. Subscribe To Chapter 9: Confidence and optimism.

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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.: June 2009

http://www.judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com/2009_06_01_archive.html

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Wednesday, 10 June 2009. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist. Posted by David Hardman. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Optimism and economic choice, explained by Manju Puri and David Robinson. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 J. Subscribe To Chapter 9: Confidence and optimism.

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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.: November 2009

http://www.judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...

4

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.: Are crowds wise?

http://www.judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com/2009/11/are-crowds-wise.html

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...

5

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.: Under-achievement and the glass ceiling

http://www.judgmentanddecisionmaking9.blogspot.com/2009/11/under-achievement-and-glass-ceiling.html

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Saturday, 28 November 2009. Under-achievement and the glass ceiling. Report on a presentation to the 2009 conference of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. Under-achievement and the glass ceiling (Robin Hogarth and Natalia Karelaia - presented by Natalia Karelaia). A question that is frequently asked about the world of work is "Why are there so few women at the top"? One implication of these results is that women in competitive environments may need more soci...

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Judgment and Decision Making: October 2008

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2008_10_01_archive.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. Anyway, I finall...

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Judgment and Decision Making: JDM classroom examples

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2009/03/jdm-classroom-examples.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. Subscribe To Jud...

judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com

Judgment and Decision Making: March 2009

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2009_03_01_archive.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. Subscribe To Jud...

judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com

Judgment and Decision Making: November 2008

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2008_11_01_archive.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. If you would lik...

judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com

Judgment and Decision Making: January 2010

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2010_01_01_archive.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. Subscribe to: Po...

judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com

Judgment and Decision Making: Powerpoint slides for the book

http://judgmentanddecisionmaking.blogspot.com/2010/01/powerpoint-slides-for-book.html

Judgment and Decision Making. This is David Hardman's blog for his textbook "Judgment and decision making: psychological perspectives", published by BPS Blackwell. Powerpoint slides for the book. In the meantime, I am willing to email lecturers my copies of the slides (minus artwork) if that is of help. Send your request, with your university email address, to d.hardman@londonmet.ac.uk. Chapters: Click below to go to a chapter blog. Chapter 1. Introduction and overview. Chapter 12. Risk. Subscribe to: Po...

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Chapter 4. Judgment distortions.

Chapter 4. Judgment distortions. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Subscribe To Chapter 4: Judgment distortions. Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page).

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Chapter 5. Evidence and arguments.

Chapter 5. Evidence and arguments. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Subscribe To Chapter 5: Evidence and arguments. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page).

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Chapter 6. Covariation, causation, counterfactuals

Chapter 6. Covariation, causation, counterfactuals. Page 63 contains a footnote where I give the formula for the phi coefficient. Unfortunately, the denominator mixes up products and sums, so is incorrect. The correct formula should be:. SQRT [(a b) x (c d) x (a c) x (b d)]. I'm grateful to John van den Bercken for pointing this out. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. Subscribe To Chapter 6: Covariation, causation, counterfactuals.

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Chapter 7. Decisions under risk and uncertainty.

Chapter 7. Decisions under risk and uncertainty. Sunday, 21 June 2009. Decision making from experience. Probabilities have shown similar results. However, according to a new study by Liat Hadar and Craig Fox (2009), a single theory may suffice for both described and experienced decisions. They suggest that the results from the two types of decision may diverge when there is an. Judgment and Decision Making, 4 (4). Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., and Erev, I. (2004). Decisio...Saturday, 13 June 2009.

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Chapter 8. Preference and choice.

Chapter 8. Preference and choice. Subscribe to: Posts (Atom). Judgment and Decision Making. The author of the site does not track or collect personally identifiable information on visitors, nor does he permit any third party to do so. Anonymous traffic data are collected through the use of a cookie installed by Google Analytics (see notice at the foot of the page). Dan Ariely describes a field study into the endowment effect. The MPG (miles per gallon) illusion, explained by Jack Soll and Richard Larrick.

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Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism.

Chapter 9. Confidence and optimism. Monday, 30 November 2009. Other fans were asked to place a different, but logically-equivalent bet; they were asked to predict the winning team and to estimate the margin of victory. They received payments that depended on their accuracy. A third group of fans betted using a combination of the other two conditions. They first made a prediction against the points spreads, and then predicted who would win and by what margin. In their main analyses, Simmons et al. Simmons...

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Judgment and Decision Making

Friday, 15 January 2010. The end of the semester. Http:/ sites.google.com/site/inequalityaversioninanimals/. This is the link to our final coursework. As the is the end of the semester I was reflecting on the module of Judgment and Decision Making. Still not hundred percent confident with a wiki page, but able to create one ;). I have enjoyed writing this blog and I will still update it, maybe not as often. Wednesday, 13 January 2010. INEQUITY AVERSION IN ANIMALS. Thursday, 10 December 2009. In the study...

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